The Finger Lakes and Central New York will get a dry, mild Saturday before a broad area of rain moves into the region Sunday and lingers into Sunday night.
High clouds will filter the sunshine Saturday, but temperatures should still reach the 60s with light wind. Rain then spreads from southwest to northeast Sunday morning and afternoon, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton, before drier weather returns Monday.
Mild weather holds through Saturday
Saturday begins quietly across most of the region. Patchy valley fog may briefly reduce visibility around the Southern Tier and some sheltered valleys early in the morning, but it should lift by about midmorning. Fog is not expected to be widespread outside the usual river and valley locations.
Thin clouds will continue to stream overhead through the morning, allowing partly to mostly sunny skies in many communities. The cloud cover will gradually become thicker and more solid late in the afternoon and evening as the next weather system approaches from the southwest.
Highs will generally reach the mid-60s, including around Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Binghamton. Southeast or east winds should remain light, generally under 10 mph, making Saturday the warmest and driest part of the weekend.
Clouds will continue to lower and thicken Saturday night. Most locations will stay dry through the evening, though a few showers could reach the western Southern Tier after midnight. The main area of rain is expected to hold off until Sunday morning across much of the Finger Lakes and until later Sunday morning or early afternoon farther northeast.
Overnight lows will settle into the upper 40s and lower 50s in most communities. Some colder valleys east and north of Binghamton could fall into the lower or middle 40s before the cloud cover thickens.
Steady rain spreads across the region Sunday
The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring the weekend's main change Sunday. Rain will spread into the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes during the morning, then advance north and east through the day.
There is still some uncertainty of about three or four hours in the arrival time. Geneva and Ithaca are likely to see rain develop during the morning, while Syracuse and areas farther northeast may not settle into steady rain until around midday or early afternoon. Once the rain arrives, periods of steady precipitation will continue through the afternoon and evening.
Some rain could become heavy at times, and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm, mainly where the system can draw in a little more warmth. Widespread severe weather is not indicated, and the primary feature will be a long period of rain rather than repeated thunderstorms.
Current rainfall forecasts generally call for one-half inch to about 1 inch from Sunday through Sunday night. Amounts near Rochester and the northwestern Finger Lakes may be closer to one-half inch, while the Southern Tier and parts of Central New York could approach the upper end of the range. Small shifts in the storm track and rain bands could still change those totals.
Clouds and rain will hold Sunday temperatures below Saturday's levels. Highs should range from the upper 50s across some higher elevations to the lower 60s around Rochester and Syracuse.
East to southeast winds will also increase Sunday. Sustained winds of roughly 8 to 15 mph are expected in many areas, with occasional gusts around 20 to 25 mph on exposed hills. Stronger gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible well southwest of the Finger Lakes along the Chautauqua Ridge, where the terrain will enhance the southeast flow.
Rain should begin tapering from west to east Sunday night as the main system shifts toward the coast. Most of the region is expected to be dry by early Monday morning, though a few showers could linger longer toward Syracuse, Binghamton and areas farther east.
Drier and milder weather returns Monday
Monday will bring a break between weather systems. Any early showers in eastern areas should end, followed by gradually decreasing clouds as weak high pressure moves across New York.
The day will be mild despite the clouds left behind by Sunday's rain. Highs are forecast to reach the mid- and upper 60s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with light northwest winds during the day.
Clouds will begin increasing again Monday night ahead of the next cold front. A few showers could develop late at night, especially across western and northern sections, but the more widespread activity is expected Tuesday.
Another front brings showers Tuesday
Tuesday is likely to become the next unsettled day as low pressure passes north of New York and a cold front approaches from the west. Rain chances have increased to roughly 60% to 80% across the region, with numerous showers expected during the day and evening.
There will also be a chance for thunderstorms. Southwest winds ahead of the front should bring temperatures into the mid-60s to lower 70s, and any breaks of sunshine could create enough instability for a few storms to become more organized. Confidence is higher that showers will occur than in the precise timing or strength of any thunderstorms.
The front's arrival time will be important. A later passage would allow more daytime warming, while an earlier arrival would favor a cooler day with more clouds and less thunderstorm development. At this point, the forecast does not support describing Tuesday as a widespread severe weather event.
Quiet weather returns for midweek
High pressure is expected to build back into the region behind Tuesday's front. Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be mainly dry with seasonable fall temperatures, though the cooler air arriving behind the front may keep highs closer to the upper 50s and 60s in some areas.
The next chance for rain may arrive Friday into Saturday as another upper-level system approaches. Details remain uncertain several days out, but current guidance suggests that system could introduce a noticeably cooler pattern by next weekend.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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