Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures will settle across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Friday, opening a two-day stretch of dry fall weather before widespread rain arrives Sunday.
Highs will reach the 60s across the region as a west to northwest breeze continues, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. A few isolated lake-enhanced showers may linger early in Oneida County, but most communities will remain dry through the day.
Sunshine returns Friday
Friday will be the brighter and calmer follow-up to Thursday's cooler, unsettled weather. Sunshine should become widespread across much of the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and Central New York as high pressure begins building east from the Great Lakes.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to cluster in the mid-60s, including highs near 65 in Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse and around 66 in Ithaca and Elmira. West winds will generally run from 10 to 20 mph, with occasional gusts near 25 mph possible along and east of the Thruway toward the Mohawk Valley.
The remaining shower activity will be concentrated east and southeast of Lake Ontario, mainly toward Oswego County and the Tug Hill. Those showers should taper by evening as drier air strengthens over the region.
Winds will ease Friday night under mostly clear skies. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s in many communities, while colder sheltered locations could dip into the mid-30s.
Valley fog may develop overnight, especially in the Southern Tier and other protected low-lying areas. Patchy frost is also possible in the coldest locations where the growing season remains active, but a widespread freeze is not expected in the current forecast.
A dry and mild Saturday
Saturday will bring another mostly sunny day as high pressure passes over New York and then begins shifting toward southern New England. Light southerly winds will help temperatures rise a few degrees from Friday.
Highs should reach the mid- to upper 60s across most of the region, with readings near 68 in Rochester, Syracuse and Elmira and around 69 in Ithaca. Some western areas could approach the lower 70s during the afternoon.
Any early valley fog should lift after sunrise, leaving dry conditions for the rest of the day. Humidity will remain relatively low, and wind speeds should be lighter than Friday.
Clouds will begin increasing late Saturday night as moisture tied to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias moves north from the Tennessee Valley. Most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York should stay dry through much of the night, although an isolated shower could reach the western Southern Tier after midnight.
The increase in clouds and a steady southeast breeze will keep Saturday night milder than Friday night. Lows are expected to range from the mid-40s to the lower 50s.
Rain spreads north Sunday
Rain is expected to expand quickly from southwest to northeast during the day Sunday. The latest timing brings rain into the Elmira and Hornell areas by mid- to late morning, then into Penn Yan, Ithaca and Binghamton during the early afternoon.
Syracuse, Rome and Cooperstown are more likely to see the steadier rain arrive late Sunday afternoon. The timing could still shift because the system remains a few days away, but forecast guidance has moved toward better agreement on a daytime arrival.
Once it begins, rain could become steady and occasionally heavy. The system is expected to move fairly quickly, limiting the duration of the heaviest rain even as deep moisture spreads across the region.
Forecast totals range from about one-quarter to one-half inch across parts of western and north-central New York, with one-half inch to 1 inch more likely across much of the Southern Tier and Central New York. The higher amounts are expected across southern New York, closer to the main moisture plume.
Clouds and rain will hold Sunday highs to the upper 50s and 60s. Temperatures are forecast near 62 in Elmira, 63 in Geneva, 64 in Rochester and Ithaca and 65 in Syracuse. Southeast winds will generally range from 6 to 15 mph.
Steady rain should continue into Sunday evening before becoming more showery overnight. The western Finger Lakes will likely begin drying first as the system reorganizes along the Mid-Atlantic coast and pulls farther east.
Clouds linger on Columbus Day
Rain should taper from west to east Sunday night into early Monday, though some showers may linger into the morning across Central New York. The rest of Columbus Day is expected to be mainly dry, with considerable cloud cover remaining behind the departing system.
Despite the clouds, temperatures should recover into the mid-60s and lower 70s. Current point forecasts call for highs near 67 in Rochester and Geneva, 68 in Syracuse and Elmira and 69 in Ithaca.
Confidence is lower on the exact duration of the lingering showers Monday morning. A slower coastal redevelopment could keep damp weather in eastern areas longer, while a faster exit would allow dry conditions to spread across the entire region earlier in the day.
Another shower chance Tuesday
A fast-moving cold front is expected to approach from the northwest Monday night or Tuesday. Southwest winds ahead of the front should keep temperatures mild, with highs generally in the upper 60s to around 70.
Scattered showers are possible as the front crosses, but the timing and coverage remain less certain than Sunday's rain. The front should be followed by high pressure, bringing dry and seasonable weather back to the Finger Lakes and Central New York for Wednesday and Thursday.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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