Tariffs or export surcharges on electricity from Canada could raise New York power costs, increase emissions and weaken the grid during extreme weather, according to a new Cornell-led study published in Nature Communications.
The findings are based on 10 years of New York electricity-market records and computer simulations, not an assessment of a tariff currently in force. Electricity has so far avoided tariffs in the U.S.-Canada trade dispute, according to a Cornell summary of the research.
Imports are a significant part of New York's supply
Electricity from Ontario and Quebec supplied an average of 9.89% of New York's load from 2015 through 2024, the researchers found. Ontario accounted for 4.25% and Quebec for 5.64%. Imports from the two provinces reached as much as 45% of the state's load during individual five-minute intervals, though such peaks were rare.
The researchers analyzed roughly 165 million bidding records from the New York Independent System Operator's day-ahead market. They modeled how trade charges would change imports, market prices, the mix of generation and grid reliability. Ontario's generation includes nuclear and hydropower, while Quebec's supply is dominated by hydropower.
Under the historical market conditions studied, a charge of roughly 55% on Ontario electricity would nearly price those imports out of New York's market. If the charge applied to both Ontario and Quebec, the threshold rose to roughly 90%, reflecting Quebec power's stronger cost advantage. Those thresholds are modeled results, not tariff proposals or predictions that a particular rate will be imposed.
The researchers said higher import costs would push New York toward more in-state generation and other U.S. imports, particularly from systems more reliant on fossil fuels. Their simulations found higher power-purchase costs and carbon emissions, along with losses to consumers and affected Canadian exporters that were not fully offset by gains to other generators or tariff revenue.
Weather stress tests show a reliability tradeoff
The study found Canadian imports helped preserve operating reserves during simulated summer peak demand and reduced reliance on oil-fired generators. For winter storms, the team modeled outages among gas-fired power plants using conditions from the December 2022 Winter Storm Elliott.
With full, responsive Canadian power support, the modeled share of failed gas-fired units that could be tolerated before power cuts began rose from 40% to 55%. Cutting off Canadian imports produced more unserved electricity and more hours with supply or reserve deficits in those simulations. The researchers did not report that a tariff has caused a New York blackout.
Cornell engineer Fengqi You said a trade charge on electricity differs from one on ordinary goods because connected grids use imports to balance supply when demand or generation changes rapidly. He urged policymakers to consult grid operators before restricting cross-border electricity trade.
Ontario briefly announced an export surcharge in March 2025 on power delivered to New York, Michigan and Minnesota, then withdrew it after a day. That episode prompted the research; it did not provide real-world evidence of a sustained tariff's effects.
The paper's estimates are limited by anonymized bidding records and a reconstructed transmission network rather than the state's full, nonpublic grid model. Results also reflect fuel prices, demand and system conditions in the 2015-24 data; future conditions could differ. The study establishes modeled statewide effects, not a separate price estimate for Finger Lakes households.
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