FL1 FORECAST: Sunny Friday gives way to breezy weekend rain

A mostly sunny Friday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York will close the workweek on a quiet note, but clouds will thicken ahead of a coastal low expected to bring breezy conditions and scattered rain this weekend.

Mostly sunny Friday

Patches of fog may briefly reduce visibility around some river valleys, lakes and other sheltered areas early Friday. Fog in the Southern Tier and near Ithaca should dissipate during the morning, leaving dry conditions across the region.

Sunshine will be most plentiful during the morning and farther west. High clouds tied to the developing coastal low will advance from east to west during the day, filtering the sun by afternoon across parts of Central New York and the eastern Finger Lakes. Rochester and areas closer to Lake Ontario should remain mostly sunny through much of the day.

Afternoon temperatures will be close to late-September averages. Forecast highs range from about 66 around Rochester, Geneva and Penn Yan to the upper 60s in Ithaca and near 70 in Syracuse. A light wind early will turn northerly and increase to around 5 to 10 mph in many areas.

Clouds will continue to increase Friday night, but dry weather should hold. Lows are expected to settle mainly into the upper 40s and lower 50s, several degrees warmer than the chilly nights earlier in the week. Some sheltered valleys may again develop patchy fog toward daybreak Saturday.

Clouds and wind build Saturday

Saturday will mark the transition from the quiet end of the week to a more unsettled Sunday. The coastal low will deepen off the mid-Atlantic coast while high pressure retreats toward the Great Lakes, allowing clouds and northerly winds to increase across the region.

Most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York should remain dry through Saturday morning and at least part of the afternoon. Skies will range from partly sunny near Rochester and Geneva to mostly cloudy around Ithaca and Syracuse. Highs will again reach the mid- to upper 60s.

The wind will become more noticeable as the pressure difference tightens between the offshore low and inland high pressure. North winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected, with occasional gusts approaching 25 mph in parts of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. Choppy conditions will also develop along the Lake Ontario shore, particularly east of Rochester.

The exact track of the coastal low remains uncertain, even as confidence rises that it will move far enough west to affect more of the region. A few showers could approach Central New York late Saturday or Saturday night, but the steadier rain bands are more likely to arrive Sunday. Western areas closer to Rochester have a better chance of staying dry longer.

Rain chances peak Sunday

Sunday is expected to be the cloudiest and most unsettled day of the weekend. Rain chances will spread westward as moisture circulates around the coastal low, with the greatest coverage expected across the eastern Finger Lakes, Central New York and the Southern Tier.

Current forecasts place the chance of rain near 30% around Geneva, around 40% near Penn Yan and Syracuse, and close to 50% near Ithaca. Chances remain lower toward Rochester, which may stay on the western fringe of the system. Those percentages and the western edge of the rain could shift as the low consolidates and its final track becomes clearer.

The rain should generally be light, although locally moderate bands are possible farther east toward the Catskills. The National Weather Service does not expect rainfall rates or totals to create flash-flood or river-flood concerns based on the current track. Thunderstorms and severe weather are not a primary concern with this system.

Northerly winds will continue Sunday, adding a cool and breezy feel under the clouds. Gusts could reach 25 to 30 mph in parts of Central New York and the Southern Tier, while winds should be somewhat lighter farther west. Highs are forecast to range from the low 60s in parts of the Finger Lakes to the mid-60s near Rochester, Ithaca and Syracuse.

Showers should gradually diminish Sunday night as the low weakens and begins to pull away. A few areas could still have light rain into early Monday, especially south and east of the Finger Lakes, but a drying trend is expected to spread through the region.

Drier weather returns Monday

Monday will remain mostly cloudy in many areas, with only a small chance of a lingering shower. Highs should reach the low to mid-60s, and northerly winds will ease as high pressure begins building back into New York.

Dry weather is favored from Monday night through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually climb, with highs returning to the upper 60s Tuesday and the low to mid-70s Wednesday. Sunshine should also become more common as the coastal system loses its influence.

The next chance of scattered showers may arrive Thursday as a weak disturbance moves through the Northeast, but timing and coverage remain uncertain. Temperatures are expected to stay near or slightly above seasonal levels late in the week.