Rain will spread across the Finger Lakes and Central New York today, Thursday, Nov. 12, before colder air brings a mix of rain and wet snow tonight into Friday. Most lower elevations will see limited accumulation, while higher terrain has a better chance of a slushy coating or more.
The National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton expect unsettled weather to linger through the weekend. The timing of tonight’s changeover remains uncertain, and a faster arrival of cold air could increase snowfall.
Thursday brings widespread rain and a northeast breeze
Rain becomes more widespread through the morning and midday as low pressure passes south of the region. Western areas should begin drying out sooner, with rain tapering from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. The Finger Lakes and Central New York will hold onto precipitation longer.
Local forecasts call for highs near 46 in Auburn and Canandaigua, 47 in Geneva, Penn Yan and Rochester, and 48 in Syracuse. Ithaca reaches about 50 before falling toward 44 during the afternoon.
Daytime rainfall forecasts vary considerably: a tenth to a quarter of an inch in Rochester, a quarter to half an inch in Canandaigua, half to three-quarters of an inch in Auburn, Geneva, Penn Yan and Syracuse, and three-quarters to an inch in Ithaca. Buffalo’s broader discussion describes a downward trend in rainfall projections, so these local amounts should not be treated as a uniform regional total.
Patchy fog is possible from late morning into the afternoon in Canandaigua and during the afternoon in Rochester. Northeast winds generally run 2 to 13 mph across the central and eastern communities, with gusts up to 23 mph in Penn Yan. Rochester will be breezier, with winds of 9 to 16 mph and gusts up to 28 mph; Canandaigua’s winds reach 7 to 15 mph.
Rain mixes with snow tonight as temperatures approach freezing
Higher elevations will turn wintry first as colder air arrives. Local forecasts bring a rain-and-snow mix into Penn Yan and Canandaigua around 9 p.m., Auburn around 10 p.m., Geneva and Syracuse around 11 p.m., and Ithaca around midnight. Those are forecast windows, and the actual transition depends on how quickly the atmosphere cools.
Lows will settle near 32 in Auburn, Penn Yan, Syracuse and Ithaca, 33 in Rochester and Canandaigua, and 35 in Geneva. North winds generally range from 8 to 15 mph, with Rochester gusts reaching 25 mph.
Auburn, Syracuse and Ithaca each have less than half an inch of snow forecast tonight; Penn Yan expects little or no accumulation. Buffalo forecasters allow for a light slushy coating in the Bristol Hills. Rochester has a chance of evening rain showers followed by only a slight chance of snow showers.
Friday stays cold, with the best accumulation chances on hills
Friday’s highs will struggle to reach 39 in Penn Yan and Ithaca, 40 in Auburn, Syracuse and Canandaigua, and 41 in Geneva and Rochester. Snow or a rain-and-snow mix remains possible, with precipitation becoming more scattered as the storm moves away.
Ithaca has snow forecast before 10 a.m., followed by rain and snow likely. Penn Yan has snow likely before noon, then a mix during the afternoon. Lower-elevation forecasts generally favor small amounts: less than half an inch in Auburn, Syracuse and Ithaca during Friday, and little or none in Penn Yan.
Higher ground could receive more. Buffalo projects spotty totals of a coating to 2 inches in the Bristol Hills through Saturday night. Binghamton says higher elevations in its region could pick up an inch or more from the initial system, with additional light accumulation possible over the weekend. Warm ground will limit how much sticks in many valleys.
Friday night lows fall to about 30 to 33 across the seven communities. Binghamton cautions that freezing temperatures could produce light icing on untreated wet surfaces.
Weekend showers give way to a warmer outlook
Northwest winds will keep lake-effect and terrain-driven showers around Saturday, with highs of 41 to 44. Snow is more likely on higher ground and during colder hours, while northern Finger Lakes locations and areas closer to the lakes may see rain or a mix. Saturday night lows range from 31 to 35.
Sunday remains mostly cloudy to cloudy, with highs around 45 to 46 and additional rain or mixed showers possible. Western areas should improve toward evening, though Binghamton leaves open the possibility of lingering lake-effect precipitation into Monday.
Monday’s highs reach roughly 46 to 48, with only small precipitation chances in the central and eastern forecasts. Tuesday brings a drier outlook and highs near 49 to 52; Wednesday reaches about 54 to 56. Nights remain cool, with several communities near or below freezing.
No local winter headline in the supplied early-morning forecast
Neither Buffalo nor Binghamton listed a land-based watch, warning or advisory in the supplied early-Thursday discussions. The statewide winter advisories supplied with this forecast cover areas farther east and northeast, including parts of the Adirondacks and Catskills.
Small craft advisories are in effect for Lake Ontario nearshore waters, with the central and eastern zones continuing into Sunday morning. Strengthening northeast winds turn northerly and then northwesterly, keeping conditions choppy through the weekend.
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