The Finger Lakes and Central New York will warm into the 70s under a mix of sun and clouds today before a more humid Wednesday brings the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Dry weather will last through tonight and much of Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. A cold front will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday, with a few storms capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours, especially in the Finger Lakes.
A cool start, then a warmer Tuesday
Temperatures around dawn will range from the upper 40s to the mid-50s across Central New York. High pressure remains in control, allowing another cool morning before sunshine helps temperatures climb well into the 70s this afternoon. A few lower-elevation locations could approach 80 degrees.
Sunshine will mix with scattered middle and high clouds. Humidity should remain comfortable today, with the more noticeable increase in moisture holding off until the high moves farther east and winds bring warmer air into the region.
Some morning valley fog is possible, though clouds moving overhead will limit its development in places. Fog is more likely around Elmira, while the chance around Ithaca is lower because of lingering wind and cloud cover. Where fog develops, visibility could drop for a time around sunrise.
A weakening front dropping south from Canada could produce an isolated shower east of Lake Ontario or in the St. Lawrence Valley. That small northern shower chance does not change the mainly dry forecast for the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Winds will remain light over the lower Great Lakes today, with little wave activity. The quiet conditions will continue ahead of the separate cold front approaching for midweek.
A milder night leads into muggy Wednesday
Tonight will be less chilly as high pressure shifts away and a southerly to southwesterly flow develops. Lows will generally fall into the mid-50s to lower 60s across Central New York, while parts of the western region may remain in the low to mid-60s.
Dry weather will continue overnight. Areas of low clouds or fog remain possible, but the broader change will be the arrival of warmer air ahead of Wednesday's system.
Wednesday's temperatures have trended a little higher. With at least partial sunshine before the front arrives, highs across Central New York are expected to reach the upper 70s to mid-80s. Most of the day should remain dry before shower and storm chances increase later.
Humidity will also rise. Dew points are forecast to reach the mid- to upper 60s, giving the air a muggy feel after today's more comfortable conditions. The combination of warmth and moisture could make afternoon temperatures feel a few degrees higher than the actual readings.
That warmer air also matters for the approaching storms. A slightly warmer forecast has increased the potential for thunderstorms late Wednesday, though the amount of energy available to strengthen them remains limited.
Storm chances increase late Wednesday
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday afternoon and continue into the evening as the cold front approaches. The Finger Lakes could see thunderstorms Wednesday evening, with rain accompanying the front overnight into early Thursday.
A few storms could become gusty. Winds changing with height may help some storms strengthen, but weak instability should limit the overall severe weather threat. The possibility depends in part on whether storms can develop and maintain their strength as the front moves through.
The National Weather Service said a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms extends roughly from the Twin Tiers northward, centered over the Finger Lakes. That supports a limited chance of stronger storms; the forecast does not call for widespread severe weather.
There is also uncertainty about how far south and east the thunderstorms will reach. The front itself is expected to cross at night, when conditions may be less favorable for storms to persist. Rain remains part of the forecast even where thunder becomes less likely.
Heavy downpours are another concern. Moist air gathering ahead of the front could allow stronger storms to produce brief torrential rain. Storms are expected to keep moving, which should hold down the overall flood risk and reduce the chance of repeated thunderstorms over the same locations.
Even so, a heavy downpour over a town or city could briefly cause water problems in streets or other areas with poor drainage. The northern Finger Lakes and the New York State Thruway corridor appear somewhat more susceptible to that localized concern than areas farther south Wednesday evening.
Winds and waves will also increase on lakes Ontario and Erie as southerly winds strengthen Wednesday. Conditions could reach small craft advisory levels through Wednesday night, with locally higher winds and waves near thunderstorms. No marine advisory was listed in Buffalo's early Tuesday forecast.
Showers taper Thursday
Rain and thunderstorm coverage will diminish after the front passes, though a few showers could linger Thursday. Low clouds early in the day should gradually improve, with a small shower chance remaining in the Southern Tier.
The front may slow as it gets farther from the low-pressure system over Canada. That could keep showers and perhaps a thunderstorm going mainly south of the Twin Tiers Thursday, while the Finger Lakes and Central New York begin to move toward drier weather.
Winds over the lower Great Lakes will remain elevated behind the front Wednesday night before slowly easing Thursday. High pressure building toward the lakes Thursday night into Friday will bring lighter winds and diminishing waves.
Cooler Friday, then weekend warming
Dry weather is expected to return Thursday night and Friday. A brief arrival of cooler air will bring another period of falllike weather into the first part of the weekend, with morning fog possible as high pressure settles back into the region.
The cooler stretch should be short-lived. High pressure is expected to move through quickly enough for temperatures to rise again over the weekend, with highs in the 70s to near 80 Saturday and Sunday across Central New York.
Moisture will remain limited, leaving uncertainty about whether weak disturbances passing through can produce rain. For now, shower chances from Saturday night onward remain in the 20% to 40% range.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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