Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across parts of the Finger Lakes and Central New York early Monday before drier air gradually pushes in from west to east, ending the weekend's wetter stretch and setting up a quieter Tuesday across the region.
That calmer break does not last long. National Weather Service forecasters in Buffalo and Binghamton say warmth and humidity will rebuild by midweek, with several chances for showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday through Friday and a lower-confidence unsettled signal carrying into the weekend.
Monday improves from west to east
The Monday forecast still begins on the damp side, especially east of the Finger Lakes and toward Central New York, where Binghamton forecasters say the last phase of a moist low pressure system will continue to move through during the morning. A few heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms are still possible early in the day, but the main threat for locally heavy rain is expected to shift east of most of the region by midafternoon.
That west-to-east progression matters across the coverage area. Communities on the western side of the Finger Lakes and closer to Rochester should be among the first to see steadier rain taper and skies start to break, while places farther east toward Syracuse and the higher terrain may hold onto clouds and scattered showers a bit longer before the drying trend becomes more noticeable.
Temperatures will stay on the cooler side for early August while the clouds and leftover rain hang on. Zone forecasts from Buffalo and Binghamton generally keep highs in the mid-70s across the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and much of Central New York, with some upper 70s possible around Syracuse after the steadiest rain moves out.
The second part of Monday's forecast is the wind. As the system pulls away, northwest winds are expected to pick up through the afternoon, with gusts reaching 25 mph in many inland areas and closer to 30 mph near the Lake Ontario shore. That should make the improving weather feel a little less humid by late day even before skies fully clear everywhere.
Tuesday brings the cleanest break
High pressure building in Monday night is expected to deliver the most reliable dry weather of the week on Tuesday. Both forecast offices point to that stretch as the clearest reprieve after the unsettled weekend pattern, with mostly sunny skies and light winds settling over western and central New York.
Tuesday also looks seasonable rather than cool. Forecast highs generally run in the lower 80s across the Finger Lakes, with upper 70s to near 80 in some higher terrain and low 80s more common in lower elevations from Monroe County east through the lake plain and into Central New York. Overnight lows Monday night should fall back into the 50s in many inland spots before a milder Tuesday night brings 60s back.
Humidity returns late Wednesday
Wednesday should still offer a fair amount of dry time, but it also marks the beginning of the next transition. Buffalo expects sunshine or a mix of sun and clouds through much of the day, while Binghamton keeps most if not all of Wednesday dry before the atmosphere starts to change later on.
By Wednesday night, both offices bring at least a chance of showers back into the forecast. The signal is not for a widespread soaking rain right away. Instead, forecasters describe a warm-air-advection setup with one or two weaker disturbances arriving as deeper southerly flow begins to transport warmer and more humid air back over the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
That will show up first in temperatures and dew points. Highs on Wednesday are expected to climb into the mid-80s across much of the region, and Binghamton says the air mass will continue to turn more humid after that, with dew points rising into the mid-60s to mid-70s from late week onward. In plain terms, the crisp break on Tuesday gives way fairly quickly to a much stickier midsummer feel.
Thursday and Friday look most active
The broadest agreement in the forecast comes later in the workweek, when Thursday and Friday carry the best chance for repeated showers and thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Both offices tie that pattern to a larger upper-level trough over the Great Lakes and northern Plains, several waves of energy moving through the flow, and a frontal boundary trying to edge in from the west.
That does not point to one simple start-and-stop storm event. Buffalo's discussion says confidence remains low on the exact timing and intensity of individual rounds of rain and thunderstorms, but the office expects the afternoon and evening periods to have the higher chances from Wednesday through Friday. Binghamton adds that multiple waves moving through a very warm, humid air mass could bring several rounds of showers and storms rather than one clean frontal passage.
The moisture content is part of what makes the late-week forecast more notable than a routine summer thunder chance. Binghamton says precipitable water values may reach or exceed 1.75 inches, which is high enough to keep locally heavy rainfall on the list of concerns if storms line up over the same corridor. Forecasters there also say lower elevations could see heat index values at or above 90 degrees as highs stay mainly in the 80s and humidity builds.
There are some regional differences inside that broader setup. Thursday highs may push into the upper 80s around Syracuse and parts of Central New York, while many Finger Lakes locations hold in the low to mid-80s. Western counties closer to Lake Ontario may also run a little cooler at times if clouds or earlier showers arrive sooner. Those differences are useful for timing and comfort, but the larger message is the same across the region: Thursday and Friday are the most consistently unsettled days in the current five-day outlook.
Forecast confidence becomes more conditional when it comes to storm strength. Binghamton notes that if some of the late-week waves arrive at a favorable time of day, a few stronger thunderstorms could develop. But neither forecast office is describing a clearly organized severe-weather setup at this point, and both still emphasize uncertainty on the exact placement and timing of the more active periods.
Weekend still carries some uncertainty
The weekend forecast is less defined than the Thursday-Friday window, but it does not look like a clean all-clear yet. Current zone forecasts keep at least a chance of showers in the region Saturday, with some areas holding onto a 30 to 40 percent rain chance and others closer to 40 percent for showers or thunderstorms.
That keeps Saturday from looking like a washout, but it also keeps forecasters from promising a fully dry reset. Highs should still reach the lower to mid-80s in much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with humidity remaining elevated compared with Tuesday's more comfortable break.
Sunday currently carries another modest chance for showers and thunderstorms, with highs back in the mid-80s and even upper 80s in parts of Central New York. The details this far out are still likely to shift, but the overall pattern described by Buffalo and Binghamton suggests the region will stay in a warmer, more humid and at least periodically unsettled setup into the back half of the weekend rather than turning sharply cooler or fully dry.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.