Scattered showers hold on Thursday before drier, warmer weather returns to the Finger Lakes

Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will keep the Finger Lakes and Central New York in an unsettled pattern today, with the steadiest daytime activity expected from the Genesee Valley and eastern Finger Lakes eastward through Syracuse, Cortland and the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Thursday stays mixed and humid

Thursday begins with low clouds, leftover showers and pockets of fog in some valleys and rain-cooled spots, especially where skies briefly cleared overnight. That early murk is not expected to last deep into the day, but the forecast does not point to a fast, full clearing trend across most of the region this morning.

Instead, the weather is expected to break up only gradually. Forecasters say the upper-level low centered near downstate New York early Thursday will keep enough wraparound moisture over the Finger Lakes and Central New York for scattered showers to redevelop through midday and afternoon. A few breaks of sun are expected to show up later in the day, but they are also part of what may help spark another round of spotty convection.

That means the day is likely to feel uneven from one community to the next. Rochester and areas farther west should spend longer stretches on the drier side of the pattern, while places from Canandaigua and Geneva east toward Auburn, Ithaca, Cortland and Syracuse have a better chance of seeing showers fill back in during the afternoon. The eastern side of Central New York, including the Catskills and nearby higher terrain, looks to hold the highest rain chances later in the day.

Any thunderstorms that form are expected to remain isolated rather than widespread. Forecast discussions from Binghamton indicate instability will be limited and wind shear fairly weak, which should keep severe weather from becoming the main issue. The greater concern is for a few brief heavier downpours in the most persistent cells, particularly where showers repeat over the same area for a short time.

Temperatures should stay close to the lower and middle 70s across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with cooler readings hanging on where clouds and showers linger the longest. Humidity also remains noticeable, with dew points in the mid to upper 60s likely to keep the air feeling damp even where steadier rain is absent for part of the day.

Showers taper tonight as fog becomes possible

The transition to better weather starts Thursday night, though it is not likely to happen all at once. Showers are expected to become more isolated this evening before fading out overnight as the low drifts farther east and high pressure begins building in from the west.

Partial clearing and lighter winds later tonight should open the door for another round of valley fog, especially in the Finger Lakes, the western Southern Tier and other low-lying areas where recent rainfall leaves behind extra near-ground moisture. That fog risk looks most likely toward daybreak Friday rather than during the earlier evening hours.

Overnight lows are forecast to settle mainly in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The coolest pockets should show up in the sheltered inland valleys if skies clear enough for temperatures to fall efficiently before sunrise.

Friday brings the cleanest stretch of the forecast

Friday is shaping up as the most settled day in the near-term forecast across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Weak ridging aloft and a surface high moving overhead are expected to shut down the lingering shower pattern and allow for a more consistent return of sunshine.

The improvement is not just about rain chances. Forecast highs should recover into the upper 70s to mid-80s, which is a noticeable warmup from the cloudier middle of the week but still close to where late July and early August temperatures typically run. Humidity levels are also expected to stay more comfortable than they will be again later in the weekend, especially during the afternoon.

There is still a small caveat on the southern and southeastern edge of the region. Binghamton forecasters leave room for a stray late-day shower or thunderstorm closer to the Catskills as the departing trough loses its grip, but for the Finger Lakes, Syracuse corridor and most of Central New York, Friday looks broadly dry and much quieter than the days leading into it.

Saturday turns warmer before the next change approaches

Saturday continues the late-week rebound, with partly sunny skies and temperatures climbing well into the 80s across much of the region. After several days in which clouds and showers repeatedly interrupted the day, Saturday stands out as the warmer side of the quieter stretch.

Even so, the forecast is not completely locked into an all-day dry outcome from start to finish. As the next frontal system approaches from the west, forecasters say a late-day shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over parts of the Finger Lakes or the central Southern Tier. The better chance for that kind of activity appears to come late in the day or after dark, which should leave most of Saturday daylight hours in relatively good shape.

That timing difference matters because the next round of moisture does not appear ready to surge in early. Western sections, including Rochester and the western Finger Lakes, would likely be first to see clouds thicken or spotty rain arrive if the system speeds up, while communities farther east toward Syracuse and the eastern hills may hold onto the drier window a little longer.

Sunday looks wetter, with heavier rain a possibility

The broader change in the pattern arrives Sunday as a deeper trough, an approaching front and a new area of low pressure move toward New York. Both forecast offices point to Sunday as the period with the highest confidence for widespread showers returning to the Finger Lakes and Central New York, and thunderstorms are expected to be part of the setup as well.

This is also the point in the forecast where humidity climbs again in a more meaningful way. Forecasters expect a richer feed of moisture to push back into the region, with precipitable water values rising to around 1.8 to nearly 2 inches and surface dew points potentially reaching the lower 70s at times. That combination supports a wetter environment than Friday or Saturday and raises the possibility of locally heavy rainfall where storms become organized.

What remains less certain this far out is how much daytime heating and instability will be available when the front moves through. That uncertainty matters because it will help determine how much thunder develops and whether heavier rain is concentrated in a few corridors or spread more broadly across the region. For now, the forecast signal supports a notably more active day Sunday, but not one where the details are pinned down yet.

Temperatures Sunday should still reach around 80 in many Finger Lakes communities and the upper 70s to near 80 across Central New York, though those readings will depend on how quickly clouds and rain expand. The main forecast message is less about the exact high temperature and more about the return of widespread rain chances after the late-week dry break.

Early next week trends drier, but not completely settled

Confidence improves again somewhat by Monday, though not enough for a fully dry outlook everywhere. The Binghamton forecast discussion points to drier air filtering in from north to south behind the departing front, while Buffalo forecasters still leave room for a few scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms along lake-breeze boundaries.

That leaves Monday looking better than Sunday, but not necessarily completely rain-free from start to finish. The cleaner signal is for the broader, soaking-type rain to move out, with any leftover showers becoming more localized and more dependent on daytime heating.

Beyond that, the early and middle part of next week trend warmer again, with periodic afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast as the air mass turns more summerlike.