An increasingly unsettled stretch is taking shape across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, where scattered storms on Monday are expected to give way to a broader round of showers, heavier downpours and a few stronger thunderstorms through Tuesday night.
The latest National Weather Service forecast discussions from Buffalo and Binghamton show the most persistent weather concerns centered on slow-moving storms, pockets of heavy rain and a wetter midweek period before high pressure brings more stable conditions back toward the end of the work week.
Forecasters said areas of fog were likely early Monday, especially in valleys and other low-lying spots where recent showers, light winds and clearing overnight skies left extra moisture near the ground. The fog was expected to thin after sunrise, but it set up another damp start to the day across parts of the Southern Tier, higher terrain and sheltered inland valleys.
Once the fog lifts, Monday is expected to trend back toward the familiar pattern the region saw over the weekend: building daytime warmth, humid air and scattered showers or thunderstorms developing inland from the lakes. This time, though, both forecast offices expect better storm coverage than on previous days, with the atmosphere carrying enough instability for more communities across the Finger Lakes and Central New York to see at least a passing storm during the afternoon or evening.
Monday turns more active
The Buffalo office said dew points in the 60s and stronger daytime instability should help showers and thunderstorms develop Monday afternoon, especially away from immediate lake influences. In the Binghamton office’s area, isolated to scattered storms are expected again, but forecasters emphasized that storm motion will remain slow and severe weather is not the primary concern.
That slower movement matters. The Binghamton discussion said any storm that lingers over the same place could produce localized flooding in urban or poor-drainage spots, similar to what developed in eastern Syracuse suburbs Sunday evening. Small hail is also possible in some of Monday’s stronger cells, but weak wind shear should keep most storms from organizing into a broader severe-weather setup.
Farther west, the Buffalo office expects the threat to hold together longer into Monday night as a shortwave and surface low move toward Lake Erie. That raises the odds that the western Finger Lakes and nearby areas see a more organized band of storms late Monday night into early Tuesday, with the main hazards listed as damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. The timing in western New York was pegged roughly from midnight through daybreak Tuesday, with the line then pushing east.
Even so, the forecast remains uneven from one part of the region to another. Lake breezes should still limit storm coverage near some shorelines during the afternoon, while inland terrain and places south and east of the lakes have a better chance to spark storms before sunset.
Tuesday brings the broadest rain threat
Tuesday is shaping up as the most consistently wet and potentially disruptive day in the forecast period. Both forecast offices describe a stacked low pressure system settling over New York, a setup that should support numerous showers and thunderstorms in a much wetter environment than Monday.
For the Finger Lakes and Central New York, that means rain is expected to become more widespread Tuesday morning, then continue in waves through the afternoon and evening. The Buffalo office said a low-level jet wrapping around the system could help a few stronger thunderstorms develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, while the Binghamton office said instability may increase east of Interstate 81 if showers are slower to spread and some sunshine breaks out. That part of the forecast still carries uncertainty, and forecasters noted recent guidance has trended a little faster with rain arriving, which would limit how much the atmosphere can recover during the day.
Where confidence is higher is in the moisture content of the air. The Binghamton office expects precipitable water values to climb into the 1.75- to 2-inch range Tuesday afternoon and night, and it noted that storm motions and training potential could allow repeated rounds of rain over the same locations. The Buffalo office also expects locally heavy rainfall Tuesday, especially as the low becomes nearly stationary over western and central New York.
That is why rainfall, more than classic severe weather, stands out as the bigger regional story. The Weather Prediction Center places parts of the region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday, while Buffalo highlighted a marginal excessive-rainfall risk for Monday and Tuesday. Neither forecast office is signaling widespread river flooding at this point, and Binghamton noted rivers and streams have handled recent rain fairly well, but both warned that localized flash flooding could develop where stronger or repeated storms lock in.
Geography may make a difference in where the worst of it sets up. The Binghamton discussion pointed to the possibility that terrain and upslope flow could enhance rainfall in some areas, while Buffalo indicated eastern sections could remain wet Tuesday night as the system pulls moisture toward the eastern Lake Ontario region. Across the Finger Lakes and nearby Central New York counties, the practical effect is a forecast that favors several rounds of rain rather than one quick frontal passage.
Showers linger into midweek
The weather does not shut off once Tuesday night ends. Instead, both forecast offices expect the same broad system to slow-walk east, leaving wraparound moisture and periodic showers in place through Wednesday and at least part of Thursday.
There may be a break for some places Wednesday morning if a dry slot edges into the region, especially in parts of Central New York, but forecasters do not expect that window to last for everyone or fully clear the pattern out. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday as the system continues to rotate overhead. Buffalo expects highs mainly in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, and Binghamton lowered Wednesday temperatures because of the expected cloud cover and ongoing showers.
That cooler turn should be noticeable after the warmer, muggier start to the week. It also reinforces the idea that Wednesday is less about severe weather and more about lingering instability, clouds and periods of rain that could add to any localized issues left behind by Tuesday’s heavier downpours. Binghamton said the rainfall threat should ease some after Tuesday because moisture values will not be as high, but it added that already saturated spots could still run into problems if showers persist.
By Thursday, the system should finally begin to lose its grip. Buffalo still carries a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms inland from the lakes, while Binghamton expects wraparound moisture to keep at least scattered showers around through daytime hours before drier air starts arriving later on.
Late week improves, but the weekend is less settled
The better stretch of weather is still expected to arrive at the end of the work week. High pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes should bring a more pleasant Friday, with drier air, more stable conditions and seasonable temperatures across the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
That quieter break may not last long. The Binghamton office said shower chances could return as early as Saturday, with another upper-level trough approaching and the potential for more widespread showers by Sunday depending on how that next system evolves. Forecast confidence for the weekend is lower than it is for the Tuesday-to-Thursday period, and Buffalo’s discussion was less aggressive about bringing rain back that quickly, so that portion of the forecast remains more conditional than the wetter midweek stretch.
For now, the clearest signal in the regional forecast is the progression from Monday’s scattered, slow-moving storms to Tuesday’s broader heavy-rain setup, followed by lingering showers and cooler air into Wednesday and Thursday before a late-week recovery.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.