A dramatic spring weather swing is set to impact the Finger Lakes and Central New York this weekend, with summer-like warmth and thunderstorms Saturday quickly giving way to a much colder pattern that could even bring snow showers by Sunday.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service say the setup will feature a strong cold front crossing the region late Saturday, triggering widespread rain, gusty winds and the potential for a few stronger storms before temperatures plunge behind it.
Friday brings brief lull, still mild
After lingering showers early Friday, conditions are expected to improve through the day with highs reaching the mid-60s to low 70s — still above average for mid-April. Any isolated showers or a rumble of thunder should taper off by afternoon as high pressure briefly builds in.
Friday night will remain relatively mild, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and increasing southerly winds setting the stage for the next system.
Saturday turns warm, windy and increasingly unsettled
Saturday will start dry but quickly trend more active. Strong southerly flow ahead of the cold front will push temperatures well into the 70s, while winds increase with gusts between 25 and 35 mph.
Clouds will thicken through the day before showers and thunderstorms develop from west to east during the afternoon and evening. A surge of moisture and instability will support a band of steady rain with embedded thunder moving across the region Saturday night.
Rainfall totals of a half-inch to an inch are expected across much of the area, with locally higher amounts possible. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, some river points — including areas near Cayuga Lake and the Tioughnioga River — could approach minor flood levels into Sunday.
Severe weather risk mainly west, but storms likely everywhere
The greatest risk for severe weather will remain west of the Finger Lakes, particularly across the western Southern Tier, where conditions may support stronger thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.
Across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, the severe threat is lower, but forecasters still expect periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning as storms move through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Rapid temperature crash Saturday night
Behind the cold front, conditions will change quickly.
Temperatures that reach the 70s Saturday afternoon will drop sharply overnight as much colder air moves in. Rain will taper to scattered showers late Saturday night, with some areas — especially higher elevations — seeing a mix with snow by early Sunday morning.
Sunday feels like late winter
Sunday will bring a stark contrast, with temperatures starting in the 30s and 40s and falling through the day due to strong cold air advection and gusty winds.
Scattered rain and snow showers are expected throughout the day, with a raw, blustery feel across the region. While any snow accumulation is expected to be minimal, the combination of wind and cold temperatures will make it feel significantly colder than recent days.
Coldest nights ahead, lingering snow showers possible
Sunday night will be the first of several cold nights, with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s to near 30 degrees across much of the region. Any lingering precipitation could fall as light snow or flurries.
Monday remains chilly, with highs only in the upper 30s to low 40s and the chance for additional scattered snow showers, especially in areas influenced by the Great Lakes.
Monday night could be the coldest period, with temperatures dipping well into the 20s under clearing skies.
Gradual recovery next week
Conditions will begin to improve by Tuesday as high pressure builds back into the region. Temperatures are expected to rebound into the 50s and 60s by midweek, returning closer to seasonal norms.
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