A U.S. federal government shutdown is putting this year’s Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement at risk of delay. The annual increase, which determines how much benefits rise to keep pace with inflation, is typically revealed in mid-October. But with key federal agencies closed, that timeline may slip.
📉 Why the Shutdown Matters for COLA
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — the agency responsible for calculating inflation — has paused the release of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the formula used to set the annual COLA. Without that September data, the Social Security Administration (SSA) cannot finalize the 2026 benefit increase.
Economists expect the shutdown to cause only a temporary disruption, but even a short delay could push the official COLA announcement later into October.
“Social Security beneficiaries should expect the adjustment to arrive as planned in January, but the exact percentage may not be known until after the government reopens,” one analyst explained.
✔️ What Isn’t Affected
- Monthly benefit payments will continue on schedule, since Social Security and SSI are considered mandatory spending programs.
- Recipients can still access their my Social Security accounts online.
- However, some services — including in-person appointments, benefit verifications, and earnings record updates — may be limited during the shutdown.
📈 Early COLA Predictions for 2026
Even with the delay, analysts project the 2026 COLA will fall between 2.3% and 2.7%, reflecting cooling inflation through 2025.
Here’s what that could mean for average retirees:
| Category | 2025 Average | Estimated 2026 (2.5% COLA) |
|---|---|---|
| Retired worker | $1,907 | $1,954 |
| Disabled worker | $1,537 | $1,575 |
| Senior couple (both receiving benefits) | $3,033 | $3,109 |
| Maximum benefit (age 70 retiree) | $5,108 | $5,236 |
That translates to roughly a $47 monthly increase for the average retiree, though the final figure depends on inflation trends and Medicare premium adjustments.
🧓 What Happens Next
Once the government reopens, BLS will publish the September inflation data, allowing the SSA to calculate and announce the official COLA. The new benefit amount will appear in beneficiaries’ December notices and take effect with January 2026 payments.
In a similar 2013 shutdown, the COLA announcement was delayed but implemented on time — a pattern experts expect again this year.
🪙 Key Takeaways
- COLA announcement likely delayed due to shutdown
- No delay expected for benefit payments
- Projected increase: between 2.3% and 2.7%
- Official announcement: expected once the government reopens
This content is brought to you by the FingerLakes1.com Team. Support our mission by visiting www.patreon.com/fl1 or learn how you send us your local content here.