The National Weather Service is predicting a complex weather pattern for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, with significant lake-effect snow expected east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario starting Friday. In short, the central portion of the Finger Lakes will feature a mix or rain and snow with little accumulation. However, if you’re headed toward Buffalo or Albany, vastly different conditions are expected. Similarly, areas east of Lake Ontario will see heavy accumulation by weekend’s end.
Early forecasts suggest the potential for more than a foot of snowfall in areas under a Winter Storm Watch, including southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties near Lake Erie, and Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties near Lake Ontario.
The holiday weekend begins with relatively mild conditions today, as high pressure provides mostly dry weather. Temperatures will peak in the lower to mid-40s, with minor impacts expected from isolated rain and wet snow showers east of Lake Ontario. However, a weak low-pressure system moving into the region late tonight into Thanksgiving Day could bring light precipitation, primarily in higher elevations, where up to two inches of snow may accumulate.
Friday marks the start of a more dynamic weather system as colder air surges across the Great Lakes, setting the stage for a prolonged lake-effect snow event. A broad upper-level trough and westerly winds are forecast to organize heavy snow bands off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Forecasters expect snowfall rates to intensify in areas such as Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau, with total accumulations likely to exceed a foot by Friday night.
“Residents in the watch areas should prepare for rapidly deteriorating travel conditions, particularly during peak snowfall periods,” the National Weather Service warned. The agency emphasized the possibility of localized travel disruptions and visibility reductions in the heaviest snow bands.
The snow is expected to persist into Saturday as wind patterns shift, potentially driving snow bands closer to Buffalo and Watertown. Gusty winds reaching up to 35 mph could worsen visibility and create hazardous travel conditions across western and northern New York.
Outside of the lake-effect zones, the forecast calls for mixed rain and snow showers, with minimal accumulation likely due to marginal surface temperatures.
By Sunday, as a trough moves through the region, the lake-effect snow bands are anticipated to shift southeast. The colder-than-average temperatures are expected to persist into next week, keeping winter hazards in place for much of the area.
Residents are advised to monitor updates from the National Weather Service, as additional winter weather advisories and warnings may be issued. Travelers should plan ahead and allow extra time for safe holiday journeys.
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