NOAA says warmer, wetter winter ahead: Predicts opposite of Farmer’s Almanac

Climate experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, are giving an outlook for winter. How much rain and snow will fall? What will temperatures be like this winter? All of those questions and more were answered as NOAA forecasts Winter 2021-22.

The biggest takeaway is that La Niña conditions are taking hold for the second year in a row. Why does it matter? Well, for the Northeast and East Coast – the forecast runs in conflict with the Farmer’s Almanac, which called for a colder, snowy winter.

NOAA WINTER 2022 OUTLOOK
What are the odds of a warmer than normal winter? Here’s what NOAA thinks.



NOAA says warmer than normal for much of East Coast and Northeast

How much warmer than normal will it be? It might only average a degree or two warmer – but meteorologists with NOAA say conditions are ripe for 40% to 60% odds that temperatures trend above normal.

The Northern Rockies, parts of New York, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Missouri are all expected to see more than normal precipitation.




How much more precipitation will fall? Where will it fall?

NOAA says this year’s La Niña conditions are going to have an impact on winter weather. That said, it’s a moderate pattern, which means a wet winter for the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. However, it’ll remain largely dry across the southern part of the U.S.

Where drought conditions have made headlines over the last two years – things are expected to worsen. Under this pattern, the Southwest U.S. could see worsening drought conditions. It would be devastating for those states heading into 2022.

What does this mean?

Here’s a look at the maps issued by NOAA for the winter.

NOAA WINTER 2022 OUTLOOK
How much precipitation will fall this winter? Here’s what NOAA says.
WINTER OUTLOOK 2022 DROUGHT
Drought conditions will worsen in the southwest, as outlined by this map.