FL1 FORECAST: Drier, breezy weather returns today across FLX and CNY

Drier air will spread across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Thursday as early fog and leftover clouds give way to a brighter, breezy day. Most of the region will stay rain-free after showers tied to a passing cold front move away early this morning.

Fog lifts into a brighter Thursday

The front responsible for Wednesday's showers and thunderstorms will continue moving south and east early Thursday. A stray shower may linger near the boundary in western New York or the Southern Tier during the morning, but widespread rain is not expected through the rest of the day.

Moisture left behind by the rain could support patchy fog and low clouds around daybreak, especially in the valleys and higher terrain. Conditions should improve during the morning as the fog lifts and cloud cover gradually thins from northwest to southeast.

Partly sunny skies are expected across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York by afternoon. Rochester and areas near the Lake Ontario plain should see highs in the mid-70s, while much of the central and eastern Finger Lakes reaches the upper 70s. Some lower elevations in the Southern Tier could touch the lower 80s.

The changing air mass will also bring a noticeable wind shift. West to northwest winds will increase during the late morning and afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph common across the region. Gusts could approach 30 mph around Syracuse and parts of the eastern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier before easing this evening.

Humidity will fall gradually behind the front rather than dropping all at once. The drier air will become more established as the day continues, setting up a cooler night under building high pressure.

Cooler air settles in tonight

Clouds should decrease from northwest to southeast Thursday night as winds become lighter. Temperatures will fall quickly from the daytime 70s, with most communities reaching the lower 50s by Friday morning.

Sheltered valleys and some higher-elevation areas could slip into the upper 40s. Patchy fog may redevelop late tonight where skies clear and winds become calm, with the best chance in the river valleys and other low-lying locations.

The change will be more noticeable than the daytime temperatures alone suggest. Thursday begins with mild, humid air still in place, but Friday morning will open with a much cooler and drier feel across the region.

Friday brings sunshine and lower humidity

High pressure will move directly across the region Friday, bringing the clearest and coolest daytime weather of the forecast period. Any early valley fog should lift into mostly sunny or sunny skies, and winds will remain light.

Highs will generally range from the upper 60s on the higher hills to the lower 70s in the valleys and lake plains. The Rochester area, western Finger Lakes and most of Central New York are expected to top out near 70 to 73 degrees, with mid-70s possible farther south in the Southern Tier.

Weekend shower chances return

The quiet stretch will begin to change Saturday as high pressure moves offshore and a southerly flow brings warmer, more humid air back into New York. The system responsible for the next shower chance is moving somewhat faster in the latest forecast, allowing scattered showers to reach western and southern parts of the region as early as Saturday afternoon.

The timing will vary across the region. The western Finger Lakes and Southern Tier carry the better chance for a daytime shower, while areas closer to Syracuse and the eastern Finger Lakes may remain dry for much of Saturday. Skies will turn partly sunny to mostly cloudy as the day progresses.

Temperatures will rebound into the mid- and upper 70s, with readings near 80 around Rochester, Syracuse and some lower elevations. South winds of 5 to 10 mph could gust near 20 mph during the afternoon as moisture increases.

Showers become more likely Saturday night as a warm front crosses the region. The chance for rain is highest across Central New York and the Southern Tier, while the western Finger Lakes face a more scattered pattern. Overnight temperatures will be milder, generally in the lower to mid-60s.

A weak cold front may produce additional showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday. Forecast confidence is lower on the exact timing and strength of that system, so the placement and duration of rain could change as the weekend gets closer.

Sunday will remain warm despite the clouds and showers, with highs mainly in the upper 70s to near 80. The current setup supports scattered rain rather than a single prolonged period, but thunderstorms could briefly increase rainfall in some locations.

A brief break Monday before warmer air returns

High pressure is expected to bring another mainly dry period Monday after the weekend front moves through. Skies should be partly sunny, with highs generally in the lower to mid-70s across the Finger Lakes, Central New York and the Southern Tier.

Warmer air will build quickly after that short break. Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of the extended forecast, with many communities reaching the lower 80s and some parts of the central Finger Lakes and Syracuse area potentially rising into the mid-80s.

There is still meaningful uncertainty in Tuesday's exact temperatures, but the larger pattern favors the warmest conditions of the forecast period. Southerly winds will also draw more moisture north, bringing a more humid feel than Friday or Monday.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected to hold off until later Tuesday and continue into Wednesday as another front approaches. The timing remains uncertain this far out, but current forecasts favor a cooler turn Wednesday, with highs falling back toward the lower 70s as showers move through.