Gusty northwest winds and scattered rain showers will start the week across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with most showers fading by Monday afternoon. Winds could gust 25 to 35 mph, especially near the lakeshores and over higher terrain.
A quieter stretch arrives around midweek before rain returns Thursday, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. A late-week storm could eventually bring wet snow to higher elevations, but its track, strength and the timing of colder air remain uncertain.
Monday showers diminish from west to east
A disturbance crossing the eastern Great Lakes early Monday will help sustain lake-enhanced showers through the morning. As winds turn northwesterly, the favored shower areas will shift from east of the lakes before dawn to southeast of them after sunrise.
Central New York and the Tug Hill region have the best chance of morning showers. Another favored area is the Chautauqua Ridge, where winds pushing air uphill will help keep showers going. Most rain will be light, though a few brief, moderate showers are possible early east and southeast of the lakes. Low clouds and heavier showers could briefly reduce visibility.
The deeper moisture will depart from late morning through the afternoon, allowing showers to weaken from west to east. Most places should be dry by midafternoon. A weaker, scattered band of showers could linger over Central New York into the evening, so the improvement will arrive later there than farther west.
Northwest winds will remain brisk during the day before easing in the evening. Temperatures across Central New York and the Southern Tier will generally be in the 40s and 50s during the early-week stretch.
On Lakes Erie and Ontario, moderate to strong northwest winds will produce conditions hazardous to small craft Monday morning. Winds and waves will subside from west to east during the afternoon and night. Small craft advisories on Lake Ontario east of Hamlin Beach extend into early Tuesday.
Monday night turns mostly dry
Most of the region will have a dry Monday night as winds diminish. Any spotty showers remaining over Central New York during the evening will shift north toward Tug Hill overnight as the wind turns from westerly to southwesterly.
That shift will concentrate the remaining lake moisture farther north. The lingering showers do not signal another widespread round of rain across the Finger Lakes overnight.
Tuesday brings another gusty afternoon
A fast-moving low crossing Ontario and Quebec will bring another disturbance Tuesday. Its best opportunity for lake-enhanced showers will be across the North Country and St. Lawrence Valley, with the most persistent activity near Tug Hill and the western Adirondack foothills. Showers there could continue into Tuesday evening.
Much of western New York will stay dry. Across Central New York and the Southern Tier, scattered light showers remain possible at times as disturbances move through the northwest flow. Rain coverage will vary across the region rather than producing a uniformly wet day.
Winds will strengthen again Tuesday afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph across much of the region and up to 35 mph near the Niagara Frontier. Parts of the Southern Tier could approach 60 degrees if a more pronounced period of clearing develops. That warmer possibility depends on how much sunshine breaks through.
Southwest winds will also increase over Lakes Erie and Ontario, bringing another period of small craft conditions Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Winds should diminish late Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds.
Wednesday offers a quieter break
Weak high pressure will bring a mostly dry Wednesday. A small chance of a shower remains near Tug Hill, but much of the Finger Lakes, Central New York and the Southern Tier should get a break from the unsettled early-week pattern.
The calmer interval comes between Tuesday’s passing disturbance and the next storm developing to the southwest. It is the clearest break in rain chances before the late-week system approaches.
Rain spreads back in Thursday
A low-pressure system moving out of the Ohio Valley will increase rain chances from southwest to northeast Thursday. The initial precipitation is expected to fall as rain, with the colder air still north of the Canadian border.
The storm may redevelop near the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night before moving along or offshore of New England Friday into Saturday. Its eventual path will determine how much steady precipitation reaches the region and how long it lasts.
A farther-north track could bring a broader area of steady precipitation. A track farther south or southeast would put parts of the region closer to the edge of that rain. Those differences remain unresolved, limiting confidence in late-week precipitation amounts.
Higher elevations could see wet snow Friday and Saturday
Colder air may allow rain to mix with or change to wet snow by around daybreak Friday, with the best chance over higher terrain. Recent trends favor a somewhat warmer system, which could delay that transition.
Lower elevations may remain mainly rain for much of the period, with a better opportunity for snow as colder air arrives Friday night and Saturday. Even where rain and snow mix Friday, very warm ground will make accumulation difficult during daylight hours.
For the highest terrain, forecast probabilities put the chance of at least 2 inches of snow Friday into Saturday at 30% to 50%. The chance of 6 inches or more is below 10%. Those figures apply to the highest elevations and do not establish a widespread snowfall forecast for the Finger Lakes.
By Saturday, precipitation may become more showery, including lake-effect or uphill-flow showers on northerly to northeasterly winds. Both the coastal storm’s influence and the lake response will depend on its track. The colder spell looks temporary, with stronger support for a return to above-average temperatures later next week.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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