New York’s preelection polls pointed toward strong statewide Democratic performances, while election-night returns showed Republicans maintaining substantial strength in the Finger Lakes. New research from Pew Research Center adds context to both the polling debate and the information environment surrounding the campaign.
Three analyses released Nov. 6 examine how polls performed in the midterms, Americans’ concerns about the political power of news organizations and social media companies, and why people leave online communities.
The findings describe an electorate in which Democratic strength was often underestimated and skepticism about political information crossed party lines. For New York, they also raise questions about how statewide polling, regional results and online political discussion fit together.
The Pew surveys are national, with no New York-specific findings reported in the analyses. They provide context for the state’s election rather than an explanation of individual New Yorkers’ votes.
New York polls identified statewide Democratic strength
Heading into Election Day, public surveys consistently showed Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman.
The Siena Research Institute’s final October statewide poll put Hochul ahead 54% to 40%. Attorney General Letitia James led Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, while Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.
Those findings anticipated the direction of New York’s election-night returns, which showed all three Democratic incumbents holding commanding advantages. The statewide tally reported in that coverage remained incomplete and unofficial.
Pew’s initial assessment of 2026 polling performance found a broader national pattern: Pollsters generally captured Democratic momentum but understated its size.
Across 27 races for governor and U.S. Senate with available data, polls underestimated the Democratic margin by at least 2 percentage points in 23 contests. The average understatement across all 27 races was about 4 points.
That national average cannot be applied automatically to New York. Measuring the accuracy of the state’s polls requires comparing their estimates with complete election results.
New York’s campaign also demonstrated how disputes over parts of a poll can overshadow its overall findings. As FingerLakes1 reported during Blakeman’s challenge to the October surveys, Siena and Marist both showed Hochul ahead statewide, despite different results among independent voters.
Siena’s combined independent-and-other category favored Hochul. Marist’s self-identified independents favored Blakeman. The surveys used different methods, and those smaller groups carried more uncertainty than the statewide samples.
Finger Lakes results showed the importance of geography
The regional picture was more favorable to Republicans.
FingerLakes1’s election-night coverage of eight Finger Lakes legislative contests showed Republicans leading six: Pam Helming and Tom O’Mara in the state Senate, and Mark Benjamin, Andrea Bailey, George Dobbins and Jim Weatherup in the Assembly.
Democrats Rachel May and Ian Phillips led the other two contests. Returns were incomplete in several districts.
Those results illustrate why a statewide Democratic advantage does not translate evenly across New York. A statewide survey measures a different electorate from the voters choosing a particular Finger Lakes legislator.
Pew makes a related distinction about the generic congressional ballot, which asks respondents which party they intend to support for the House. That question is useful for measuring partisan sentiment, but it is less precise as a forecast of how many seats either party will win.
Affordability also remained an unresolved concern in New York even as Democrats led statewide.
Siena found that 35% of likely voters believed neither Hochul nor Blakeman would make life more affordable, including 45% of independents. Thirty percent chose Hochul on that question and 27% chose Blakeman.
The survey of 807 likely voters was conducted Oct. 19-22 and had an overall margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Those findings show that support for a candidate can coexist with doubts about that candidate’s ability to address household costs.
Distrust of social media crossed party lines
A separate Pew analysis of political power and influence found that 69% of U.S. adults believed social media companies had too much influence in politics. A smaller majority, 55%, said the same about news organizations.
Republicans and Democrats largely agreed about social media companies: 71% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said those companies had too much political power, compared with 69% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.
Their views of news organizations differed more sharply. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said news outlets had too much political power, compared with 43% of Democrats.
Trust in information from social media was low across both parties. About six in 10 Republicans and Democrats reported little or no trust in information from those platforms.
The findings add national context to a New York campaign that included public challenges to polling and claims about how information affected voters. They measure perceptions of influence, however, rather than demonstrating that a platform or news organization changed an election outcome.
The survey was conducted June 22-28, months before Election Day. It does not measure voters’ reactions to Tuesday’s results.
Political arguments helped drive some people from online groups
Pew’s third analysis examined another part of the political information environment: the people who step away from online communities.
About a third of American adults said they had ever left an online community, according to the survey conducted May 26-June 1.
Among those who had left one, 57% cited too much arguing as a major or minor reason. Forty-three percent cited harassment, and just over four in 10 said politics came up too often.
Politics was more frequently cited by Republican respondents who had left a community: 50% identified it as a reason, compared with 39% of Democrats.
Losing interest was the most common reason overall, cited by more than eight in 10 people who had left. Declining quality and life changes also contributed.
Pew defined online communities broadly, including social media groups, discussion forums, messaging groups and online gaming communities. Leaving one did not necessarily mean abandoning social media or political participation.
The national survey included 9,750 adults. Its findings concern experiences before the election, rather than departures prompted by the results.
For New York, the research identifies a limitation in treating online discussion as a picture of the electorate: Some people have already withdrawn from particular spaces because of arguments, harassment or excessive politics. The survey does not establish whether those departures affected their votes or turnout.
Pew similarly cautioned that explaining this year’s polling errors will require more evidence about who voted and whether voters changed their choices. Researchers will examine turnout assumptions and the adjustments pollsters make to their samples.
In New York, that work will accompany a more complete accounting of an election that produced strong statewide Democratic leads alongside substantial Republican support in the Finger Lakes.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to news@fingerlakes1.com.