AAA expects 22.4 million U.S. residents to take ocean cruises in 2027, a projected record and a 3.6% increase over its 2026 estimate. The forecast includes cruises departing from both U.S. and international ports.
The AAA forecast released Tuesday would make 2027 the fifth straight year of record U.S. passenger volume by the organization's count. AAA said this year's total is also expected to exceed its earlier projection, though it did not provide a revised 2026 figure in the release.
AAA put U.S. ocean cruise passenger volume at 14.2 million in 2019. Its 2027 forecast is 8.2 million higher than that pre-pandemic count.
Caribbean trips and shorter itineraries
The Caribbean accounts for 71% of U.S. cruise passenger destinations in AAA's analysis. The group points to the region's proximity to American ports, private-island investments and large ships with at least 4,500 passengers as reasons for its prominence. Miami, Port Canaveral and Fort Lauderdale are the world's three busiest cruise ports, according to AAA.
Seven-night itineraries remain the most common, but shorter cruises have grown. In 2025, 45% of U.S. ocean cruise passengers took trips lasting six nights or less, up from 39% in 2019. AAA says shorter sailings may fit travelers unable to take a full week away from work or school.
AAA advises travelers to reserve desirable cabins early, especially for Alaska's shorter cruise season. For shorter trips, it recommends booking excursions and specialty dining before departure and bringing sunscreen and other supplies rather than buying them aboard.
The organization also recommends arriving in the port city a day before departure to leave room for flight disruptions, downloading the cruise line's app in advance and reviewing travel insurance terms because policies differ. AAA says travel advisers can help compare ships, cabins and itineraries, particularly for multigenerational trips.
Great Lakes cruising offers a local connection
In September, AAA Western and Central New York announced a partnership with American Cruise Lines after the company's small ship American Patriot visited Oswego, Rochester and Buffalo. The regional club said most of that operator's Great Lakes options had sold out for 2026.
Those Great Lakes trips are a different product from the ocean cruises counted in AAA's national forecast. The regional announcement described a roughly 130-passenger ship, while the Caribbean market includes ships carrying thousands.
Tourism Economics prepared the forecast with AAA using scheduled itineraries for virtually all major cruise vessels, data from its Cruise Intelligence Platform, Oxford Economics forecasts and assumptions about travel trends.
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