White evangelical Protestant registered voters strongly favor Republican U.S. House candidates in a new national survey, while several other religious groups favor Democrats. The findings describe voters' stated preferences before the election, not how people will ultimately cast ballots.
In a Pew Research Center analysis released Oct. 13, 73% of White evangelical Protestant registered voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their House district if the election were held then, compared with 12% for the Democrat. Among White Catholic registered voters, the split was 50% Republican and 32% Democratic.
The national survey found an overall Democratic edge among registered voters, 44% to 36%, with 20% choosing another candidate or saying they were unsure. Those are nationwide responses; Pew did not publish Finger Lakes or New York estimates in this religious-group analysis. They should not be read as a forecast for a particular local House race.
Differences across religious groups
White nonevangelical Protestant voters were more closely divided: 45% preferred a Republican and 37% a Democrat. Pew said that eight-point difference was not statistically significant for that subgroup, so the survey does not establish a clear party advantage there.
Black Protestant registered voters favored Democrats 74% to 6%, while Hispanic Catholic voters favored them 59% to 19%. Among religiously unaffiliated voters overall, the Democratic advantage was 61% to 17%. The survey also reported Democratic preferences among atheists, agnostics and adults who describe their religion as “nothing in particular,” though those groups have different levels of support.
Pew cautioned that its analysis includes all registered voters, not only people likely to vote. Preferences and enthusiasm can change before Election Day, and different groups may turn out at different rates. The center noted that 46% of eligible voters participated in the 2022 midterms.
Views of the president
The same survey found that White evangelical Protestants were the only religious group Pew analyzed in which more adults approved than disapproved of President Donald Trump's job performance, 58% to 40%. Among White Catholics, approval was 39%, and among Black Protestants it was 7%. These approval results are for adults in each group, not just registered voters, and should not be treated as a measure of House vote choice.
Pew reported that Trump's approval among every religious group it tracked was lower than at the start of his second term. Among White evangelical Protestants, for example, the share approving fell from 78% in January-February 2025 to 58% in the latest survey. National approval among all adults was 30% in the current poll.
The survey methodology says Pew interviewed 5,062 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters, Sept. 28-Oct. 4. Participants came from its nationally representative American Trends Panel, recruited through random sampling. SSRS conducted interviews online and by live telephone in English and Spanish; responses were weighted to reflect the adult population.
The full-adult-sample margin of sampling error was plus or minus 1.6 percentage points. That figure does not apply to each smaller religious subgroup, which has its own sampling uncertainty. Pew's findings show substantial national differences by religious identity, but they do not establish what any individual voter believes or how a community in the Finger Lakes will vote.
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