Most homeowners treat Labor Day as the unofficial end of bug season. The screens come down, the patio furniture gets stacked, and the assumption is that the first cool nights will take care of the rest. This year, that assumption may cost people a few extra weeks of ants in the kitchen and mosquitoes on the porch.
On August 26, 2026, the National Pest Management Association (NPMA) released its Fall and Winter Bug Barometer, the twice-yearly forecast its entomologists build from weather outlooks and seasonal pest patterns.
The headline this fall is simple: summer-like temperatures are expected to hang on across much of the country, and pests will use that time to forage, reproduce and look for a way inside.
“Weather is one of several important pieces in forecasting pest activity, and with summer-like temperatures forecasted to continue, pests are going to take advantage of the extra time,” said Dr. Jim Fredericks, Senior Vice President of Public Affairs for NPMA.
Here is what the forecast says for each of the seven regions NPMA tracks, and what homeowners in each one should watch for.
Mid-Atlantic and New England
From Maine down through Virginia, including New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Washington, D.C., extended warm weather may keep ticks and ants active unusually late in the year.
The more interesting part of the forecast is what it says about the cold-weather pests. Rodents, Asian lady beetles and boxelder bugs could see delayed pressure if warm, dry conditions persist.
Delayed is the key word. A warm October pushes the indoor migration back, but mice and overwintering insects still move inside once temperatures fall.
Homeowners in this region have a little more time to seal gaps and repair screens before that happens.
Southeast
In North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Florida, NPMA expects warm, wet conditions to extend mosquito and cockroach activity.
Prolonged rainfall may also increase food availability for rodents, which can lead to more encounters as temperatures drop later in the season.
Standing water is the main lever here. Gutters, birdbaths, plant saucers and anything else that holds water after a storm will keep mosquitoes breeding well into fall.
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest
For West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and Minnesota, above-average temperatures could lengthen the season for stinging insects and ticks. Late-season yellowjacket colonies are at their largest and most defensive, so a nest near a door or play area deserves attention before anyone gets hurt.
North Central
In North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana and Wyoming, the forecast pairs warm fall temperatures with increased rainfall.
That combination may boost ant, tick, and mosquito presence. Anyone spending time outdoors for fall hunting, hiking, or yard work should keep checking for ticks later into the year than usual.
South Central
Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas can expect warm, wet fall conditions to keep cockroaches, ants and mosquitoes active beyond their typical window. In this part of the country, moisture control inside the home matters as much as anything done in the yard.
Leaky pipes, clogged drains, and poorly ventilated crawl spaces all give cockroaches what they need.
Intermountain and Southwest
In New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Nevada and California, heavier rainfall may drive scorpions and spiders indoors as they look for drier ground. Continued heat and moisture are also expected to increase mosquito activity. Door sweeps, weatherstripping and a quick check of shoes and bedding go a long way in scorpion country.
Northwest
For Idaho, Washington and Oregon, unseasonably warm, dry conditions could extend ant and stinging insect seasons, and rodent encounters may increase as temperatures cool.
Homeowners here get both problems in sequence: late insects first, then mice looking for shelter.
What This Means at Home
Across every region, the pattern is the same. The season is running long, and the pests that normally wind down in September have extra weeks to build populations and find entry points.
Whatever those populations look like in late October is what homeowners will be living with through winter.
NPMA’s prevention checklist is practical and worth following regardless of where you live:
- Seal entry points with caulk or weatherstripping, replace damaged screens and add door sweeps.
- Remove standing water from birdbaths, gutters, flowerpots and other containers.
- Trim grass, prune shrubs back from the exterior, and clear leaf litter.
- Store food in airtight containers and clean up crumbs and spills promptly.
- Repair leaky pipes and clogged drains, and make sure basements, attics and crawl spaces are ventilated.
For rodents in particular, the timing of that sealing work matters. Mice can fit through an opening about the size of a dime, and a population will not clear out on its own once it has food and shelter.
EcoShield Pest Solutions has written about both points in its guides on keeping mice out of the home in winter and why mice do not simply go away.
When to Bring in a Professional
Fredericks put the case for early action plainly. “The best time to address a pest problem is before it gets out of control.
A professional pest inspection can help catch potential risks and early activity, helping protect your health and property.”
A fall inspection is less about treating what is already there and more about finding the gaps, moisture problems and nesting spots before the season turns.
With the forecast pointing to a longer runway for pests this year, that inspection is worth scheduling while the weather is still mild enough to do the exterior work.
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