Most Americans think 2026 will bring more problems than progress, with pessimism stretching across the economy, politics, and global affairs. In a new Gallup survey, majorities predict negative outcomes in nearly all 13 areas tested, with just one bright spot.
The stock market stands alone. Fifty-five percent of Americans believe it will rise, making it the only dimension where optimism reaches a majority.
Beyond that, the outlook turns bleak. Americans expect more political gridlock, worsening international disputes, and growing power from China. Majorities also foresee higher unemployment, rising taxes, increasing prices, and more crime. Many think U.S. influence in the world will weaken.
Only two areas divide the public. Americans split on whether labor union strikes will increase and whether Russia’s global power will rise or fall.
Predictions grow darker than last year
Compared with expectations for 2025, views for 2026 have shifted sharply downward. Positive predictions dropped by double digits for jobs, taxes, economic prosperity, political cooperation, prices, China’s global power, and even the stock market.
Smaller but meaningful declines also appear in views of U.S. power, the federal budget deficit, international disputes, and crime. Expectations for labor strikes and Russian power stayed about the same.
Party loyalty shapes expectations
Politics strongly influence how Americans see the year ahead. Republicans remain far more optimistic than Democrats across nearly every category, a pattern Gallup has seen for decades.
Majorities of Republicans expect positive outcomes in most areas, except political cooperation and a decline in China’s power. Democrats, by contrast, show deep skepticism. No more than 36% expect positive outcomes in any category, and optimism rarely reaches even one in three.
Independents land somewhere in the middle. A slim majority expect the stock market to rise, and about half predict fewer labor strikes or declining Russian power. Few see improvement elsewhere.
A long-running tradition, with a gloomy turn
Gallup has tracked Americans’ New Year predictions since 1959. While survey methods have changed, the pattern remains familiar: optimism often follows political power. Americans aligned with the sitting president’s party tend to expect better outcomes.
This year’s slide toward pessimism reflects a sharp pullback among Republicans, who were far more optimistic a year ago. Democrats and independents shifted less, and in some cases grew slightly more hopeful.
As 2026 begins, Americans largely expect a difficult year ahead. Optimism is scarce, pessimism is widespread, and confidence centers almost entirely on the stock market. The mood marks a clear downturn from last year and underscores how deeply politics shape expectations for the future.
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