Governor Kathy Hochul heads into the end of 2025 with double-digit leads over her top Republican challengers, according to a new Siena College Research Institute poll.
Hochul leads Rep. Elise Stefanik 49% to 30%, with 20% of voters undecided. She also holds a 50% to 25% advantage over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with 21% undecided, the poll found.
Hochul’s edge holds across party lines
Among Democrats, Hochul has the support of more than three-quarters of voters against either Republican. Stefanik dominates among Republicans, leading Hochul 82% to 7%, while Blakeman leads Hochul 73% to 7% with GOP voters.
Independents break more evenly. Hochul leads Blakeman by 10 points and Stefanik by seven points among voters not enrolled in either party.
“Closing out 2025 – six months from the primaries and 11 months till the general election – Hochul maintains a solid 19-point lead over Stefanik,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Favorability and approval inch upward
Hochul’s favorability rating stands at 43% favorable to 41% unfavorable, an improvement from November. Her job approval rating also rose to 52% approve and 39% disapprove.
Stefanik’s favorability rating sits underwater at 22% favorable and 33% unfavorable. Blakeman remains largely unknown, with a 13% favorable and 17% unfavorable rating. Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado posts a 17% favorable and 15% unfavorable rating.
“Hochul’s favorability rating tilts slightly favorable – only the third in positive territory this year – but she has still yet to crack 50% favorability,” Greenberg said.
Strong support for free childcare statewide
The poll shows broad support for universal free childcare for infants through pre-kindergarten. Voters back the proposal 65% to 27% when it is paid for by higher taxes on New Yorkers earning more than $1 million.
Support spans most demographic groups. Four in five Democrats back the plan, while independents support it by a two-to-one margin. Republicans narrowly oppose it.
Free buses draw mixed reaction in NYC
New York City voters narrowly support eliminating bus fares, 50% to 41%, if paid for by higher taxes on city residents earning more than $1 million.
Democrats in the city support the idea 54% to 39%. Republicans oppose it 58% to 39%. Younger voters drive the support, with those under 35 backing free buses 61% to 26%, while voters 55 and older oppose it.
Voters warm to mayor-elect Mamdani
Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s favorability rating rose sharply. Statewide, voters view him favorably by a 46% to 31% margin, up from an even split last month.
In New York City, his favorability stands at 61% favorable and 23% unfavorable. Statewide, voters say his election will be good for the city by a 49% to 32% margin.
“Enjoy the honeymoon, Mayor-elect Mamdani,” Greenberg said.
Trump actions seen as going too far
Between 58% and 65% of voters say the Trump administration has gone too far on actions including deploying ICE agents in cities, raising tariffs, prosecuting critics, and bombing alleged Venezuelan drug boats.
Democrats and independents say Trump has gone too far on all four issues. Republicans largely disagree, though only a plurality say prosecuting critics is “just about right.”
Trump’s favorability rating stands at 32% favorable and 62% unfavorable. His job approval rating is 34% approve and 62% disapprove.
Mixed views on New York’s direction
Nearly half of voters, 45%, say New York State is falling behind other states. Thirty percent say it is keeping pace, and 19% say it is doing better.
For only the second time this year, a narrow plurality of voters say the state is on the right track, 44% to 41%. Views of the country remain sharply negative, with 63% saying it is headed in the wrong direction.
The Siena Poll surveyed 801 registered New York voters between December 8 and 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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