A hot and stormy start to the week is in store for the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday before cooler, more comfortable weather briefly returns midweek. Heat Advisories remain in effect Sunday evening, and localized flash flooding could become a concern as a slow-moving front brings downpours to the region.
Monday: Storms, heat, and flash flooding potential
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, but rising humidity and dew points will make it feel even warmer, especially in urban areas. A cold front approaching from the west will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. These storms could produce heavy rainfall, with rates exceeding 2 inches per hour in some areas.
Forecasters say the greatest risk for flooding is in the western Southern Tier, northern Finger Lakes, and areas around Syracuse, where repeated rounds of storms, known as “training,” could occur. The National Weather Service has placed the region under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. A few storms could also become severe, with gusty winds the primary threat.
Storm chances will diminish Monday night as the front slowly exits east. However, lingering moisture and weak instability may allow for scattered showers to persist into early Tuesday.
Tuesday: Lingering rain before drier air moves in
While some uncertainty remains about the exact location of the frontal boundary on Tuesday, the day is expected to begin with lingering showers or storms, especially in the Southern Tier and Northeast Pennsylvania. With tropical moisture still in place, any storms that form could once again produce heavy rainfall.
By evening, drier air is expected to move in from the northwest as high pressure builds, offering a brief reprieve from the wet pattern. Highs Tuesday will be more seasonable, in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: A quiet day before storm chances return
Wednesday will likely be the driest day of the week. High pressure overhead will bring partly sunny skies and comfortable conditions, with highs again in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, another warm front could lift north by evening, potentially bringing scattered showers back into the region by Wednesday night.
Thursday and beyond: Unsettled pattern continues
The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns on Thursday and is expected to persist through the weekend as the region remains under the influence of a broad upper-level trough. While no single day looks like a washout, each afternoon could bring hit-or-miss storms, especially during peak heating hours.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average through the latter half of the week, with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s.
FingerLakes1.com is the region’s leading all-digital news publication. The company was founded in 1998 and has been keeping residents informed for more than two decades. Have a lead? Send it to [email protected].