The gates will fly open Saturday evening at Churchill Downs for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby. With less than 2 hours to go before post time, handicappers and bettors are locking in their final picks from a wide-open 20-horse field.
With a light rain falling over Louisville and a fast but damp track expected, conditions could favor tactical speed and horses with proven grit in traffic.
The Favorite: Journalism (3-1)
The clear favorite heading into the Derby is Journalism, trained by Javier Martinez and ridden by top jockey Florent Geroux. With dominant performances in the Gotham Stakes and Arkansas Derby, Journalism has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and make a decisive move in the stretch.
“Journalism is a pro — he’s shown he can handle pace pressure and still finish strong,” said racing analyst Donna Barton Brothers on Saturday afternoon.
Top Contenders: Sovereignty and Sandman
Sovereignty (5-1) enters with a powerful resume and sharp workouts over the Churchill surface. Trainer Alex Taggart says the colt is “peaking at the perfect time.” His stalking style could be an asset in a field that lacks a true front-running speed horse.
Sandman (6-1) has quietly become a buzz horse after impressing in morning drills. The colt’s late kick makes him a threat down the stretch if the pace heats up.
Value Plays: Burnham Square and Baeza
Burnham Square (12-1) and Baeza (12-1) are both getting late action at the windows. Burnham Square’s tough second-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes proved he belongs at this level, while Baeza is one of the more battle-tested entries with wins over multiple distances.
Live Longshots to Watch
- Luxor Cafe (15-1): Has looked sharp in the mornings and could surprise from mid-pack.
- Citizen Bull (20-1): A consistent closer with stamina — useful for trifectas.
- Final Gambit (30-1): Connections believe he has a big race in him with the right trip.
Expert Picks from Churchill Downs
- Mike Battaglia (Churchill Downs): 1. Journalism, 2. Sandman, 3. Burnham Square
- Daily Racing Form: 1. Sovereignty, 2. Baeza, 3. Journalism
- FanDuel TV: 1. Sandman, 2. Sovereignty, 3. Luxor Cafe
- Courier Journal Consensus: Journalism and Sovereignty in most top picks
Betting Strategy
Experts recommend boxing the top three favorites in exacta and trifecta plays, while sprinkling in a longshot like Honor Marie or Forever Young for bigger payouts.
Post Time at the 2025 Kentucky Derby
Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. The weather is expected to be damp and windy, favoring horses that run well on a wet, but not muddy track.
You can watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby live on NBC and stream it on Peacock.
This content is brought to you by the FingerLakes1.com Team. Support our mission by visiting www.patreon.com/fl1 or learn how you send us your local content here.