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Cheltenham Festival: Analysing the Triumph Hurdle trends

The Triumph Hurdle, a renowned fixture in the National Hunt calendar, showcases the burgeoning talent of young hurdlers on the grand stage of the Cheltenham Festival.

As the excitement builds for the next edition of this Grade 1 race, astute bettors analyzing the Triumph Hurdle odds 2024 turn their attention to the trends that have shaped its recent history.

Delving into the statistics, here are the key trends to consider for the upcoming renewal of the Triumph Hurdle.

Age

Uniquely, the Triumph Hurdle is exclusively reserved for four-year-old hurdlers only — providing a platform for the youngest talents in the jumping ranks to shine in Cheltenham’s glaring spotlight.

Price

While favourites have enjoyed a reasonable success rate, with five of the last 12 winners wearing that mantle, backing contenders from the top three in the betting with your Cheltenham welcome offers has proven fruitful — accounting for seven of the last 12 victors.

Last time out

Recent form is paramount, with a majority of winners (seven out of 12) prevailing in their final outing before the Triumph Hurdle.

Additionally, all champions had their last run within 48 days of the big race — emphasising the importance of freshness and sharpness.

Preparation races

Some of the significant races to consider as a key trail for the Triumph are the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown and the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Eight of the last 12 winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, with three of those winning in Ireland, while two of the last 12 competed in the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle — both winning at Cheltenham.

Course and distance form

Given the youthfulness of these competitors, previous experience at Prestbury Park hasn’t been a strong indicator — with only those two winners of the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle boasting prior runs or wins at the iconic course.

However, familiarity with distances ranging from 15 to 17 furlongs is crucial — with the vast majority of champions having demonstrated proficiency over these distances.

Hurdle and rating credentials

A solid foundation in hurdling is essential, with most winners boasting multiple runs over hurdles (10 out of 12) and at least one victory in the discipline (11 out of 12).

Moreover, a high rating has been a common attribute among victors — with nine out of 12 champions rated 140 or higher.

Seasonal form and graded success

Consistency throughout the season is a recurring theme among Triumph Hurdle winners, with the majority having notched up at least two previous runs and at least one victory — as we already mentioned.

To add to that though, success in graded races before the Cheltenham Festival has been a significant factor — with seven out of the 12 winners having secured wins in Grade 1-3 contests.

As the anticipation mounts for the 2024 Triumph Hurdle, punters and racing enthusiasts would do well to heed these key trends when assessing the contenders.

And, they appear to point in favour of Sir Gino. While around just 40% of the 12 winners were the market leaders, the Nicky Henderson-trained horse ticks all of the other boxes.

He has three previous runs over hurdles, winning all three. But more importantly, he won the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle in January.

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