There are three months until Election Day, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early for some prognostication on what the outcome of New York’s gubernatorial race might look like.
A new Siena Poll released on Tuesday shows that Democrat Kathy Hochul holds a 14-point advantage over Republican Lee Zeldin in the race for governor. The poll gave Hochul a 53-39% advantage over the Congressman, who is seeking to become New York’s first Republican governor in decades.
Democratic US Senator Chuck Schumer holds a 21-point lead over Republican Joe Pinion, 56-35%, as does Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who leads Republican Paul Rodriguez 51-30%.
The same goes for Democrat Letitia James, who leads Republican Michael Henry 50-36% in polling for the AG’s race.
As for some high-profile issues in New York – the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is opposed 68-25%. They also support new laws expanding eligibility requirements for obtaining a concealed carry permit in New York by a wide margin (82-15%).
“Less than 100 days until election day, Hochul has a solid 14-point lead over Zeldin, a reflection of the Democrats’ large enrollment advantage in New York. Hochul and Zeldin are both holding their parties, as she leads among Democrats 81-12% and he leads among Republicans 84-12%. Independents narrowly tilt toward Zeldin, 44-42%,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
Hochul’s success in New York City is a major factor, according to Greenburg. “Less than 100 days until election day, Hochul has a solid 14-point lead over Zeldin, a reflection of the Democrats’ large enrollment advantage in New York. Hochul and Zeldin are both holding their parties, as she leads among Democrats 81-12% and he leads among Republicans 84-12%. Independents narrowly tilt toward Zeldin, 44-42%,” he added.
Hochul has a 46-41% favorability rating this month among likely voters, compared to 46-37% in June among registered voters. Hochul has a 52-41% job approval rating, the first time Siena has asked Hochul’s ‘job approval,’ replacing the previous ‘job performance’ question. Zeldin now has a 31-28% favorability rating, with 41% either having no opinion or never heard of him, up from 21-22-57% in June.
“Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know most voters don’t really begin to focus on elections till after Labor Day. Still, Hochul has an early – but certainly not insurmountable – lead. In fact, while Democrats have taken the last four gubernatorial elections, Zeldin’s current 14-point deficit matches the closest Republicans have come in those races, when Andrew Cuomo defeated Rob Astorino 54-40% in 2014. In August 2014, Cuomo led Astorino by 32 points, 58-26%,” Greenberg concluded.