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Siena poll shows Hochul, Schumer, DiNapoli, and James all have big leads over Republican challengers in New York

There are three months until Election Day, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early for some prognostication on what the outcome of New York’s gubernatorial race might look like.

A new Siena Poll released on Tuesday shows that Democrat Kathy Hochul holds a 14-point advantage over Republican Lee Zeldin in the race for governor. The poll gave Hochul a 53-39% advantage over the Congressman, who is seeking to become New York’s first Republican governor in decades.


Democratic US Senator Chuck Schumer holds a 21-point lead over Republican Joe Pinion, 56-35%, as does Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who leads Republican Paul Rodriguez 51-30%.

The same goes for Democrat Letitia James, who leads Republican Michael Henry 50-36% in polling for the AG’s race.

As for some high-profile issues in New York – the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is opposed 68-25%. They also support new laws expanding eligibility requirements for obtaining a concealed carry permit in New York by a wide margin (82-15%).

“Less than 100 days until election day, Hochul has a solid 14-point lead over Zeldin, a reflection of the Democrats’ large enrollment advantage in New York. Hochul and Zeldin are both holding their parties, as she leads among Democrats 81-12% and he leads among Republicans 84-12%. Independents narrowly tilt toward Zeldin, 44-42%,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.

Hochul’s success in New York City is a major factor, according to Greenburg. “Less than 100 days until election day, Hochul has a solid 14-point lead over Zeldin, a reflection of the Democrats’ large enrollment advantage in New York. Hochul and Zeldin are both holding their parties, as she leads among Democrats 81-12% and he leads among Republicans 84-12%. Independents narrowly tilt toward Zeldin, 44-42%,” he added.


Hochul has a 46-41% favorability rating this month among likely voters, compared to 46-37% in June among registered voters. Hochul has a 52-41% job approval rating, the first time Siena has asked Hochul’s ‘job approval,’ replacing the previous ‘job performance’ question. Zeldin now has a 31-28% favorability rating, with 41% either having no opinion or never heard of him, up from 21-22-57% in June.

“Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know most voters don’t really begin to focus on elections till after Labor Day. Still, Hochul has an early – but certainly not insurmountable – lead. In fact, while Democrats have taken the last four gubernatorial elections, Zeldin’s current 14-point deficit matches the closest Republicans have come in those races, when Andrew Cuomo defeated Rob Astorino 54-40% in 2014. In August 2014, Cuomo led Astorino by 32 points, 58-26%,” Greenberg concluded.



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