Rain and wet snow will keep the Finger Lakes and Central New York chilly and unsettled Saturday, with showers becoming more widespread later in the day. Most communities will reach only about 40 to 42 degrees, while higher elevations remain colder and have the best chance of minor snow accumulation.
The National Weather Service in Buffalo expects precipitation to become steadier from late morning into early evening. The Binghamton office also forecasts an afternoon and evening increase as a disturbance crosses the region, followed by lingering showers Sunday and a gradual warmup next week.
Saturday showers change with temperature and elevation
Early showers will favor snow, although Binghamton forecasters say rain, drizzle and patchy freezing drizzle could mix in at times early this morning. As temperatures rise, lower elevations will increasingly see rain or a rain-and-snow mix. Higher ground should favor wet snow, with some rain possible even there.
Clouds will persist, and northwest winds will generally range from 3 to 14 mph across the seven local forecasts. Buffalo’s broader forecast allows occasional gusts near 23 mph south and southeast of the eastern Great Lakes late this morning and afternoon.
The local forecasts show the expected differences:
- Geneva: Rain and snow showers, with a high near 41 and northwest winds of 9 to 13 mph. The precipitation chance is 90%.
- Penn Yan: Snow showers before 10 a.m., then mixed rain and snow showers. The high will be near 40, with northwest winds of 9 to 14 mph and a 90% precipitation chance.
- Ithaca: Snow showers before 9 a.m., then rain and snow showers. Expect a high near 42, northwest winds of 6 to 13 mph and a 90% precipitation chance.
- Auburn: Rain and snow showers, with little or no daytime snow accumulation expected. The high will be near 40, with northwest winds of 6 to 12 mph and a 90% precipitation chance.
- Syracuse: Rain and snow showers, a high near 41 and northwest winds of 3 to 10 mph. The precipitation chance is 90%.
- Canandaigua: Snow showers before 7 a.m., then rain and snow showers, with less than half an inch of new snow possible during the day. Expect a high near 40 and northwest winds of 8 to 13 mph.
- Rochester: The daytime forecast favors rain showers, with a high near 41, northwest winds of 9 to 14 mph and a 90% precipitation chance.
Marginal temperatures should limit daytime snow accumulation, particularly in lower elevations. Whether a shower falls as rain or snow, and how much sticks, will depend on elevation, temperature and how long precipitation persists over a particular location.
More mixed showers tonight
Saturday night’s lows will settle near 32 to 34 degrees in the seven communities. Northwest winds will continue, generally at 3 to 13 mph, with rain and snow showers remaining widespread.
Geneva, Penn Yan, Ithaca and Syracuse each have less than half an inch of new snow forecast overnight. Auburn could receive less than an inch. Penn Yan’s overnight forecast favors snow, while the other four communities retain a rain-and-snow mix.
Canandaigua’s forecast starts with rain before 9 p.m., followed by rain and snow showers likely. Rochester continues to favor rain, with an 80% precipitation chance and a low near 34.
Across Buffalo’s forecast area, additional snowfall through Sunday is expected to remain an inch or less on higher terrain and half an inch or less at lower elevations. Binghamton likewise expects minor overnight accumulation, mainly on higher elevations. Those amounts are additional snowfall forecasts, not measurements of snow already on the ground.
Sunday improves gradually from the west
Sunday will remain mostly cloudy, with highs around 44 to 45 degrees in the local forecasts. Northwest winds will generally run from 3 to 12 mph. Rain and snow showers will continue, but coverage should decrease as drier air moves in.
Rochester has a 30% chance of rain showers, compared with 40% chances of mixed showers in Geneva and Canandaigua. Penn Yan, Auburn and Syracuse have 50% precipitation chances, while Ithaca has a 60% chance, with snow showers likely before 9 a.m. and a chance of mixed showers afterward.
Buffalo expects showers to diminish from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. Binghamton expects lingering activity to weaken to sprinkles and flurries Sunday night. The local forecasts retain small precipitation chances into the evening or around 1 a.m. Monday, so clearing will not arrive everywhere at once. Sunday night’s lows range from about 31 to 36 degrees.
Lake Ontario boaters face rougher conditions
Buffalo’s early Saturday discussion lists Small Craft Advisories for Lake Ontario’s nearshore waters. Along the western and central south shore, the listed advisories begin at 10 a.m. Saturday, ending at 4 a.m. Sunday in zone LOZ042 and 10 a.m. Sunday in zones LOZ043 and LOZ044.
Northwest winds over the eastern Great Lakes are forecast to strengthen to 15 to 25 knots later this morning and afternoon, with waves building as high as 4 to 6 feet before slowly subsiding tonight. These marine conditions differ from the lighter winds in the inland community forecasts. Neither office’s discussion lists a New York land-based watch, warning or advisory.
Sunshine and warmer afternoons return next week
Monday will be mainly dry but still mostly cloudy, with highs of about 46 to 49 degrees and light west or northwest winds. Binghamton forecasters caution that pockets of drizzle could linger beneath the cloud cover even as the broader pattern improves.
Sunshine returns Tuesday, with highs around 54 to 56 degrees. Wednesday should reach about 56 to 58, followed by 59 to 61 Thursday and roughly 59 to 62 Friday in the seven local forecasts.
Nights will remain much cooler: Monday night’s lows range from about 29 to 33 degrees, with many inland locations staying in the 30s later in the week. High pressure should keep much of the week fair, although Binghamton notes that a weak disturbance or front could pass toward Friday.
Featured image: AI-generated editorial illustration, not a photograph of current conditions.
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