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House turnover before 2026 election reaches 34-year high

At least 74 members of the U.S. House are set to leave their seats before the next Congress begins, the highest preelection turnover since 1992, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. The departing group includes 42 Republicans and 32 Democrats who retired, sought other offices, lost primaries or left seats that had not been filled by special election.

House turnover before 2026 election reaches 34-year high

At least 74 members of the U.S. House are set to leave their seats before the next Congress begins, the highest preelection turnover since 1992, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

The departing group includes 42 Republicans and 32 Democrats who retired, sought other offices, lost primaries or left seats that had not been filled by special election.


Pew reviewed every House race since 1992, tracking whether incumbents sought reelection, ran for another office, won or lost primaries and returned after the general election. Representatives elected in special elections before the general election were treated as incumbents, while unfilled seats left by resignations, deaths or expulsions were counted as non-returning.

More members pursued other offices

Twenty-eight House members chose to run for another office in the 2026 cycle, the most in any year Pew studied and nearly twice the 15 who did so in 1992.

Sixteen pursued Senate seats, 10 ran for governor and two sought other offices. Only 13 advanced to general-election ballots, while 15 were eliminated in primaries.

Another 33 members decided to retire. That is below the 50 retirements recorded in 1992 but higher than the total in most election cycles included in the analysis.

Across states that had completed traditional House primaries, 11 incumbents seeking reelection lost, the fourth-highest primary defeat total since 1992. Louisiana was the exception because its all-candidate primary was scheduled for Nov. 3, the same day as the national general election.

Texas accounts for the largest change

Texas has the most departing incumbents. At least 13 of the state's 38 House members will be new when the 120th Congress takes office in January.

Pew linked much of that turnover to a congressional map Texas adopted last year. The map prompted some incumbents to retire or seek other offices and could shift as many as five seats from Democrats to Republicans.

Texas' action also helped set off an unusual round of mid-decade redistricting in other states, contributing to additional decisions by House members not to seek reelection.

Turnover does not determine control

The analysis cautioned that a large number of departures does not necessarily mean control of the House will change. A retiring member in a safe district may be replaced by another candidate from the same party.

In 1992, 86 members were already on the way out before the general election, amid post-census redistricting and public anger over the House banking scandal. Turnover eventually reached 110 members, including 24 general-election losses, but the net result was a shift of only nine seats from Democrats to Republicans.

Two years later, 86 incumbents left, but Republicans gained 54 seats and ended four decades of Democratic House control. Pew said that contrast shows why the 2026 departure count should not be read as a prediction of the November outcome.



Categories: News

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