New research from Cornell University suggests voters may be more forgiving than commonly believed when politicians fail to deliver results — especially if voters believe those politicians genuinely tried to help.
The study, conducted by Cornell government professor Talbot Andrews and independent scholar Scott Bokemper, found that voters often place significant weight on a politician’s intentions, sometimes even more than the outcomes of the policies they pursue. The findings challenge the long-held assumption that voters primarily judge elected officials based on whether conditions improved during their time in office.
To test how voters evaluate incumbents, researchers conducted a series of experiments involving more than 3,000 participants. The experiments placed participants in simplified election scenarios where they acted as either voters or incumbent politicians making policy decisions.
In one experiment, voters were informed about both policy outcomes and the intentions behind those policies. Researchers found voters were 11 percentage points more likely to support incumbents who produced favorable outcomes. However, they were more than twice as likely to support incumbents whose intentions were viewed positively, regardless of the final outcome.
A second experiment removed voters’ personal stake in policy outcomes and asked them to judge politicians solely on outcomes and intentions. In that scenario, voters were 12.4 percentage points more likely to support politicians who achieved good results, but nearly 50 percentage points more likely to support politicians who demonstrated good intentions.
Researchers believe the findings reflect a broader human tendency to evaluate potential partners and leaders based not only on success, but also on whether they appear trustworthy and committed to helping others. Andrews said people recognize that even well-intentioned efforts can fail due to circumstances beyond an individual’s control.
The study also found that partisanship significantly influences how voters process those intentions. When voters and politicians belonged to the same political party, good intentions provided a substantial boost in support. But when politicians belonged to an opposing party, intentions mattered far less and voters focused more heavily on whether tangible benefits had been delivered.
The findings suggest politicians may benefit not only from highlighting successful policies, but also from emphasizing legislative efforts and initiatives that fell short. Researchers concluded that many voters, particularly co-partisans, appear willing to reward effort and intent even when policies fail to achieve their intended goals.
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