A year after sweeping tariffs reshaped U.S. trade policy, most Americans aren’t convinced the strategy is working — and many don’t trust the decision-making behind it, according to new national polling.
A Pew Research Center survey released this week found 58% of U.S. adults lack confidence in President Donald Trump’s ability to make sound decisions on trade, while an even larger share — 63% — say they have little or no confidence in his handling of tariff policy.
The divide is sharply partisan. Republicans are far more likely to back Trump’s approach, with 74% expressing confidence in his trade decisions, compared to just 12% of Democrats. The gap widens among older Americans, where nearly all Democrats over 50 report skepticism, while a strong majority of Republicans in that same age group remain supportive.
Beyond confidence in leadership, the survey highlights shifting — and increasingly uncertain — views on how the U.S. fares in trade relationships with its largest partners: China, Canada and Mexico.
China remains the country most Americans believe benefits more from trade with the U.S., though that sentiment has softened slightly over the past year. Just 11% say the U.S. comes out ahead in that relationship, while roughly a quarter believe both countries benefit equally.
Opinions on trade with Canada and Mexico are more mixed — and less certain than a year ago. More Americans now say they aren’t sure which country benefits most, while fewer believe those relationships are evenly balanced. At the same time, there’s been a modest increase in the share who say the U.S. benefits more from trade with Mexico.
The data comes as North American trade dynamics continue to shift. Mexico has overtaken China as the country tied to the largest U.S. trade deficit, which reached a record $194.6 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, trade with China declined sharply, narrowing that deficit significantly.
Altogether, the U.S. traded about $2.4 trillion in goods and services with China, Canada and Mexico last year, slightly down from 2024. The overall U.S. trade deficit climbed to roughly $912 billion.
The findings underscore a broader trend: Americans remain divided not just along party lines, but increasingly uncertain about the outcomes of global trade — even as its economic impact continues to grow.
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