WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans are entering 2026 with cautious optimism about the stock market and overall economic growth, even as many anticipate rising inflation and unemployment, according to a new Gallup poll.
The survey, conducted Jan. 2–17, found that 50% of U.S. adults expect the stock market to rise at least a little over the next six months, compared with 25% who believe it will fall. Similarly, 49% predict economic growth will increase, while 36% expect it to decline.
Those readings mark a rebound from April 2025, when confidence dipped sharply amid global market turbulence and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies. While optimism has improved, it has not returned to the higher levels seen at the start of 2025.
Americans’ expectations for interest rates are more divided. Forty-one percent say rates will decline in the coming months, while 36% believe they will rise and 20% expect them to remain the same.
At the same time, the public remains pessimistic about inflation and unemployment. Sixty-two percent of respondents predict inflation will increase over the next six months, compared with 26% who think it will decline. Half of those surveyed expect unemployment to rise, while 32% foresee it falling.
The poll also found sharp partisan differences in economic outlook. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats and independents to anticipate positive outcomes across all five measures, including economic growth and stock performance. Democrats and independents are more likely to predict worsening conditions, particularly on inflation and unemployment.
Gallup has tracked these economic expectations periodically since 2001. The latest findings suggest Americans see potential gains in financial markets and growth but remain concerned about persistent cost pressures and job stability in the months ahead.
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