Travelers heading out for New Year’s Eve celebrations or New Year’s Day plans across western and central New York should be prepared for winter weather, as multiple rounds of lake-effect snow, a fast-moving clipper system and the potential for snow squalls are expected to impact the region through the holiday weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters warn that conditions may change rapidly over short distances, particularly near Lakes Erie and Ontario, where intense lake-effect snow bands will shift north and south through tonight before settling back into more persistent patterns later this week.
What to expect New Year’s Eve
Snowfall will intensify through the day Wednesday as lake-effect bands strengthen and are pushed northward by changing winds ahead of a clipper system. By late afternoon and evening, heavier snow is expected to spread into the Buffalo metro area, the immediate Southtowns, Genesee County and portions of the Rochester area, while a separate intense band moves across Oswego County, Jefferson County and the Tug Hill Plateau.
Snowfall rates could reach 2 inches per hour near Lake Erie and up to 3 inches per hour east of Lake Ontario during the strongest bands. Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly during the late afternoon and evening, with snow-covered roads, rapidly falling visibility and locally whiteout conditions.
As the clipper’s cold front sweeps through Wednesday evening, winds will shift sharply to the northwest, pushing lake-effect snow bands rapidly south. This frontal passage may also produce scattered snow squalls well inland of the lakes, posing a particular risk for motorists traveling late Wednesday night as New Year’s celebrations wrap up.
New Year’s Day outlook
Behind the front, colder and drier air will move into the region Thursday. Lake-effect snow will continue east and southeast of both lakes, but with somewhat reduced intensity during the day as brief ridging moves overhead. Areas southeast of Lake Ontario are expected to see the most persistent snow on New Year’s Day, with additional accumulations possible.
High temperatures Thursday will struggle to reach the upper teens to low 20s across much of western and central New York, with wind chills making it feel colder. Roads in lake-effect areas may remain snow-covered and slippery, especially during the morning hours.
The rest of the holiday weekend, Friday through Sunday
Another round of unsettled weather is expected beginning Thursday night and continuing into Friday as additional shortwave disturbances cross the region. Widespread snow showers are likely Friday morning before lake-effect snow once again becomes the dominant feature Friday afternoon and night.
Snowfall totals from Thursday night through Friday night are expected to be highest east of Lake Ontario, where up to a foot of snow is possible, with a narrow corridor potentially seeing up to 18 inches if lake-effect bands persist. East of Lake Erie, additional accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are forecast during this period.
Cold, lake-effect-prone conditions will persist through the weekend. Forecasters expect continued chances for lake-effect snow Saturday and Saturday night, particularly along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline, with scattered snow showers continuing into Sunday. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the teens and 20s, well below early January averages.
Active alerts and advisories
Numerous winter weather alerts are in effect across the region:
- Winter Storm Warnings cover large portions of western and north-central New York, including northern and southern Erie County, Genesee County, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties, the western Southern Tier, and much of the eastern Lake Ontario region. Some warnings extend through Thursday evening, while others remain in effect into Friday or Saturday morning.
- Winter Weather Advisories are posted for areas including Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Allegany, Steuben and Otsego counties, where lighter but still disruptive lake-effect snow is expected.
- Additional advisories and warnings extend into northern New York and parts of central New York, with hazardous travel conditions likely during periods of heavier snow.
- Marine interests on Lakes Erie and Ontario should note Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through much of the week due to elevated winds and waves.
Forecasters urge travelers to monitor local forecasts, allow extra travel time and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility and road conditions, especially during lake-effect snow and potential snow squalls. Motorists are advised to check road conditions before traveling and to avoid unnecessary travel during periods of intense snowfall.
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