As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season intensifies, forecasters are raising urgent alarms: they are losing the tools they rely on to predict deadly storms. Budget cuts and agency infighting have triggered a historic collapse in America’s hurricane monitoring capabilities, threatening the accuracy of forecasts at a time when climate-driven storms are growing stronger and more erratic.
“We’re flying blind,” one federal meteorologist told NBC News, reflecting widespread concern among scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Hurricane Center, and the Department of Defense (DOD).
Satellite gaps and canceled flights leave forecasting vulnerable
At the heart of the crisis is a breakdown in interagency coordination and a wave of funding cuts. The Pentagon has reduced flights of its critical C-130 “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft, which fly directly into storms to gather real-time intensity data. Meanwhile, NOAA’s satellite systems—used to detect storm development from space—are facing outages, delayed replacements, and dwindling support.
“We’re losing access to vital data,” said Jordan Gerth, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service. “Without it, we can’t accurately model storm strength or track paths, which increases the risk to lives and property.”
In a high-stakes letter to the White House this month, members of the House Science Committee warned that recent budget decisions “jeopardize America’s ability to provide life-saving hurricane forecasts.”
Ocean buoys unplugged and high-tech tools sidelined
It’s not just planes and satellites. Hundreds of drifting ocean buoys that record temperature, pressure, and wave height—essential inputs for hurricane forecasting models—are going offline due to a lack of maintenance funding. Even newer, cutting-edge systems like gliders and dropsondes are being pulled back.
“The storm data deficit is real, and it’s growing,” said University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy. “And if you reduce observations, your forecasts will get worse.”
Researchers point to a stark contrast: while hurricane activity has intensified due to warming oceans and stronger El Niño conditions, the United States is now collecting less observational data than it did a decade ago.
Forecasts may become less accurate just as storms grow more dangerous
The timing couldn’t be worse. NOAA has already predicted an “extraordinary” 2025 season, with up to 25 named storms—well above average. As climate change supercharges storms with heavier rainfall and faster intensification, early warnings are critical to public safety.
But with less data feeding the models, officials say forecast accuracy—especially for storm intensity—could degrade rapidly.
“There’s a very real chance that people won’t get the warning they need to evacuate,” said Kerry Emanuel, a prominent climate scientist. “And that could cost lives.”
Internal government friction adds to the crisis
The situation is further complicated by bureaucratic tensions between NOAA, NASA, and the Pentagon. A long-planned satellite handoff from the DOD to NOAA has been delayed, while key programs like the Environmental Data Rescue Project—which digitizes old weather records—have seen funding slashed.
In short, critical modernization efforts are being shelved even as older systems break down.
“Unless there’s a course correction now,” said McNoldy, “this could be the worst year for hurricane forecasting in a generation.”
Why it matters
- Forecast models rely on real-time data: Satellite, aircraft, and buoy data are essential for modeling storm tracks and intensity. Gaps degrade forecast accuracy.
- Climate change is making storms worse: With warmer oceans and rapid intensification, forecasters need more data, not less.
- Public safety is at stake: Evacuation orders, flood prep, and emergency response plans depend on trustworthy storm warnings.
📊 Hurricane Forecasting Tools at Risk in 2025
(Based on data from NOAA, DOD, and congressional reports)
| Tool/Asset | 2024 Status | 2025 Status | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOES Satellite System | Fully operational | Reduced coverage | 🔴 High |
| Hurricane Hunter Aircraft | Regular flights | Flights scaled back | 🟠 Moderate |
| Ocean Buoys | 90% active | 60% offline or broken | 🔴 High |
| Gliders & Dropsondes | Expanded use | Suspended operations | 🟠 Moderate |
What’s next?
Lawmakers are now calling for emergency funding and a reassessment of priorities before the season peaks in August and September. But time is running out.
Without immediate action, America’s weather agencies may face their biggest test in decades—with less data, fewer tools, and millions of lives depending on uncertain forecasts.
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