Cornell researchers found that conspiracy theorists not only show high overconfidence but also vastly overestimate public agreement with their beliefs, according to the Cornell Chronicle. In eight studies involving over 4,000 adults, those who believed in false conspiracies—like moon landing hoaxes—mistakenly thought most people shared their views.
The study revealed that these individuals often misjudge their own cognitive abilities and perform poorly on analytical tasks, yet still believe they’re right. Unlike earlier theories, researchers say these beliefs stem more from cognitive miscalibration than a desire for uniqueness.
Experts warn this disconnect makes correcting misinformation harder, especially as conspiracies spread rapidly online.