A new Siena College Research Institute poll released May 20, 2025, reveals early shakeups in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race. While Gov. Kathy Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings remain largely unchanged, a majority of voters now say they want someone else as governor. Meanwhile, Rep. Elise Stefanik emerges as the Republican frontrunner.
Most voters want change at the top
Only 36% of voters say they are prepared to re-elect Hochul, while 55% prefer a new candidate in 2026. That’s a 10-point drop from April, when 39% supported her re-election and 48% wanted someone else. Hochul’s job approval rating holds at 50-46%, virtually unchanged from the prior month.
Although she maintains a 46% lead among Democrats for a primary match-up, her challengers—Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (12%) and Rep. Ritchie Torres (10%)—remain largely unknown to most voters.
Stefanik surges in GOP primary
Rep. Elise Stefanik enters the Republican primary field with 35% support, making her the early frontrunner. She outpaces Rep. Mike Lawler (22%) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (11%). This is a notable shift from April, when Blakeman led Lawler 28-22% before Stefanik was included in the poll.
While Stefanik has a negative favorability rating statewide (25-35%), she is viewed favorably by Republicans (45-22%), giving her a strong base heading into the primary season.
Key budget policies see widespread support
Several provisions in the newly passed state budget enjoy bipartisan support:
- Click-to-cancel: 82% of voters support requiring companies to make subscription cancellations easier.
- Free school meals: 81% favor free breakfast and lunch for all public school students, including 64% of Republicans.
- Smartphone restrictions: 67% support limiting student smartphone use during the school day.
Other measures, such as inflation rebate checks and giving the governor mid-year budget-cutting power, received mixed or plurality support. Only 38% support repaying $8 billion to the federal government for unemployment loans borrowed during the pandemic, with the rest split between opposition and uncertainty.
Affordability remains a top issue
Hochul has promoted the budget as a way to make New York more affordable. According to the poll:
- 52% believe the budget will make the state “somewhat” or “a lot” more affordable.
- However, 43% still say the state is on the wrong track, with only 37% saying the same about the U.S..
Democrats are more optimistic, with nearly two-thirds saying the budget helps affordability. But a majority of Republicans and independents disagree, with many saying it doesn’t meet the real needs of everyday New Yorkers.
Trump and Schumer remain polarizing
Former President Donald Trump’s favorability declined slightly to 38-59%, and his job approval now stands at 40-57%. He retains strong support among Republicans (79% favorable), while Democrats (82%) and independents (50%) mostly disapprove.
Sen. Chuck Schumer’s favorability rating slightly improved to 42-48%, up from 39-49% in April.
Transgender athlete policy divides voters
When asked about whether transgender girls should be allowed to play on girls’ sports teams:
- 46% of voters say all districts should ban participation.
- 22% support full inclusion.
- 23% say the decision should be left to each school district.
There are sharp divides along political and age lines. Nearly 70% of Republicans and a majority of older voters support a statewide ban, while younger voters and Democrats are more split.
Key takeaways
- Hochul’s re-election prospects weakened as more voters express a desire for change.
- Stefanik leads the GOP field and is gaining momentum.
- Budget measures like free school meals and smartphone restrictions are widely supported.
- Economic optimism remains muted, despite the new budget.
- Trump and Schumer remain deeply divisive figures in New York politics.
For full cross-tab data, visit the Siena College Research Institute.
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