A dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected to unfold today across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The National Weather Service has issued an Enhanced Risk alert for damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes — some potentially strong.
Regions at highest risk
The Enhanced Risk area includes parts of:
- Eastern Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Northern Illinois
- Northern Indiana
- Southern Michigan
- Northwestern Ohio
A broader Slight Risk zone covers sections of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
What to expect: Tornadoes, large hail, destructive wind
The SPC says multiple rounds of severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening, triggered by a powerful low-pressure system and upper-level jet streaks. Forecasters are especially concerned about:
- Hailstones over 2 inches in diameter
- Wind gusts exceeding 75 mph
- Tornadoes, with several possibly rated EF2 or stronger
These threats are greatest from eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin to lower Michigan and northern Indiana, including metro areas such as Chicago, Milwaukee, South Bend, and Detroit.
Timing and storm behavior
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the early afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Initially discrete supercells — capable of producing giant hail and tornadoes — may transition into a broken squall line by early evening.
According to SPC meteorologists, conditions are especially favorable for rotating storms due to:
- Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s to low 70s°F
- MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, indicating moderate instability
- 0-6 km shear up to 40 knots, supportive of storm organization
- Enhanced storm-relative helicity, which increases tornado risk
Additional threats extend south and east
Isolated severe storms are also expected further south into the Ozarks and the lower Ohio Valley, though activity will be more scattered due to weaker upper-level support.
Meanwhile, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, especially eastern Virginia, may see isolated damaging wind gusts and hail with fast-moving afternoon storms fueled by daytime heating and localized convergence.
What should you do?
Residents in the risk zones should:
- Monitor NOAA Weather Radio or local alerts
- Review severe weather plans
- Have a way to receive tornado warnings, even during the night
- Secure loose outdoor items ahead of expected high winds
Outlook and next update
The SPC will issue its next Day 1 Convective Outlook by 9:00 AM CDT. Affected residents should remain weather-aware throughout the day as forecast conditions evolve.
For the latest severe weather maps and updates check out the Storm Prediction Center online.
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