New Yorkers should brace for a “scorcher of a summer” in 2025, according to the latest long-range forecast from the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
With spring blossoms just beginning to bloom, early predictions for summer suggest the Empire State is in for hot and humid conditions, especially in July and August. The Almanac’s summer 2025 forecast paints a picture of rising heat, with much of the U.S.—including New York—expecting well above-average temperatures.
What the summer forecast says for New York
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, known for its blend of climatology, meteorology, and solar science, predicts that this summer will rival or even exceed last year’s record-breaking heat. While June is expected to start near seasonal norms, the heat is forecast to intensify:
- July and August: Above-normal temperatures are expected to dominate.
- Western New York: Areas like Buffalo and Rochester may see hot, humid days with occasional heavy rain.
- Statewide: Most regions are forecast to endure “broiling” temperatures by mid-summer.
Quick overview of New York summer 2025 forecast
| Region | Temperature Outlook | Precipitation Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| NYC & Downstate | Above average | Near average |
| Western NY | Hot and rainy | Slightly above average |
| Upstate & Adirondacks | Broiling heat likely | Average to slightly below normal |
How much rain is expected?
The Almanac projects “near to slightly below normal” rainfall for most of the U.S., particularly the western half. New York is expected to receive average levels of precipitation, though northern New England could experience slightly wetter conditions.
What other forecasts say
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center supports the outlook for a hotter-than-normal summer across much of the U.S., including New York. It expects:
- Above-average temperatures from June through August
- Average to above-average rainfall for half the nation
Meanwhile, AccuWeather offers a slightly cooler take. Their long-range forecast suggests:
- Near or slightly below normal temps in parts of the Northeast
- Hot and humid spells still expected
- NYC could see 12+ 90-degree days, fewer than last year’s 21 but still above average
“Don’t be fooled, we’ll still have some hot and humid stretches in this region from time to time,” said AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
When does summer start and end?
- First day of summer: Friday, June 20, 2025 (summer solstice at 10:42 p.m.)
- End of summer: Monday, September 22, 2025 (first day of fall)
Note: Meteorologists define summer as starting June 1 and ending August 31.
How the Old Farmer’s Almanac makes its predictions
Founded in 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac uses a time-tested formula developed by founder Robert B. Thomas. Its forecasting method includes:
- Solar activity comparisons
- Historical weather patterns
- Climatology and meteorological data
Despite a claimed 80% accuracy rate, the Almanac noted its winter 2023–2024 accuracy came in at 64%, which it attributed to increasingly unpredictable weather trends.
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