The Presidential election is looming, and just like four years ago, it’s come right down to the wire. Whatever advantage Kamala Harris seemed to have gained from her post-nomination bounce has been steadily whittled back down by Donald Trump, and as the candidates feverishly canvass the battleground states no one really wants to call it one way or the other.
Of course, this is based on opinion polls, which history has shown to be, well, let’s say not 100% accurate, especially in those tight states which hold the key to this year’s election. Let’s buckle up for the final stages of the 2024 campaign — who’s your money on?
Kamala’s Bounce Runs Out
The surge in positive Harris polls was largely driven by her assumption of the Democratic candidacy after Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the first televised debate. After Biden meandered, Harris seemed like a breath of fresh air, despite being on the card as the incumbent veep. Confidence was restored, and the ship steadied.
But, the bounce and subsequent polling lead over Trump may have been deceptive in the first place — some commentators suggest that Harris was merely picking up Democratic voters whose support was wavering at the prospect of an 82-year-old President. And Trump is gaining momentum again, at this crucial late hour, though the race remains extremely tight. Whatever the reason for the semi-slump, Harris is still in the hunt to become the first-ever female President.
Global Impact
The US Presidential election always has huge ramifications around the globe, as the self-styled “world’s policeman” chooses its most powerful figure. In some quarters the spectacle is bet-worthy, and indeed, punters can easily get the latest US election odds if they want to place a wager for the outcome of November 5th.
Then there are those for whom it isn’t so light-hearted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed his country’s ‘very existence is at stake’ as he met with the two main candidates last week. The outcome for Ukraine is very much in the balance, with two radically different approaches outlined — Harris seems set on continuing the ‘frog boiling’ approach, that is, letting Russia wear itself out and not risking a global escalation. Trump, in characteristically gung-ho fashion, has a vague plan to end the war as soon as possible, by drastic means.
The ongoing situation in the Middle East is also a major foreign policy focus, as the world awaits a more decisive response to the escalating crisis. On the domestic front, Michigan, a battleground state, has the largest number of Arab-Americans in the country, and some of those voters may be swinging towards Trump in light of the ‘betrayal’ they feel by the Biden administration’s soft response towards Israeli aggression. Harris needs to win them over to secure that important brick on the ‘blue wall’.
The Puerto Rican Vote
We didn’t see it coming, but Puerto Rico has become an important focus on the campaign trail as we move into the latter stages of this election. Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, aka Bad Bunny, a Puerto Rican superstar rapper has thrown his support behind Harris, just moments after Tony Hinchcliffe cracked a racist ‘joke’ about the US territory at a Trump rally in New York.
Speaking ahead of Trump at the rally in Madison Square Garden, the ‘comedian’ said “There’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now, I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” The Puerto Rican vote should not be taken lightly — millions of mainland voters are of Puerto Rican descent and are fiercely proud of their heritage. A slight such as this — despite the Republicans’ efforts to distance themselves from it — may well spur them into the polling stations. Saying that, the largest concentration of Puerto Ricans is in Florida, Trump’s home state, and a Republican stronghold.
Harris pitched at Puerto Rican voters, with calls to push for economic growth and job creation. The territory has been hit by several ferocious hurricanes in recent months, affecting power to the island and hammering the economy — the local government recently filed for bankruptcy. Harris discussed her plans at a Puerto Rican restaurant in Pennsylvania, in an effort to bolster support from the 580,000 eligible voters in the crucial swing state.
Who will take the White House in 2024? The best bet is… well, it’s pretty unclear. As the close —and bitterly fought— election runs in, who will be the next President of the United States is still very much in the balance.
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