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Has Delta variant of COVID run its course? Why are cases declining in hard hit states across U.S.?

Has the Delta Variant of COVID peaked in the United States? There isn’t enough data to be certain, but health officials are growing optimistic that cases could be peaking – and that it could be happening at the right time.

COVID has followed a cycle, and even though so much is unknown still about the virus, cases have surged for two months- then receded.

Experts say that despite how contagious the Delta variant is it’s following the same pattern, which is welcomed news for health care workers and those worried about back to school.

Even in places that were harder hit than the U.S. by Delta – like India – caseloads began subsiding after approximately two months. They peaked in July there; and even in other countries like Indonesia, Thailand, France, and Spain – the surge associated with Delta lasted up to two-and-a-half months.


In hard hit states like Florida, Louisiana, and Arkansas – cases peaked in mid-August and have been falling since.

There are a few different thought processes on why this is the case, but scientists and medical experts say there isn’t enough data yet to know for sure. Part of the answer though undoubtedly lies in how susceptible individuals are to the virus itself.

For the first two months, a virus variant like COVID’s Delta, can spread very rapidly among a very susceptible group. But then, between vaccinations and a lack of additional individuals – that slows.

It doesn’t mean the pandemic is over. In fact, there are already concerns about a number of other variants. But, for those worried about the imminent damage that the pandemic can do as students head back to school – this news is welcomed.



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