The Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets on Sunday, Nov. 15, with a chance to build on a productive running game against a defense that has struggled to stop it. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. Eastern at MetLife Stadium.
Buffalo enters its second divisional game of the season after its two largest victories. Three areas stand out in Bills insider Chris Brown’s Nov. 11 matchup report: James Cook’s opportunity on the ground, New York’s ability to force fumbles and the Jets’ problems near both goal lines.
Cook faces a struggling Jets run defense
Buffalo ran a season-high 44 times in Monday night’s victory at Minnesota. Cook handled 31 carries and gained 107 yards, giving the Bills a sustained ground attack as they worked through the Vikings’ defense.
New York presents another potential opportunity. The Jets allowed about 118 rushing yards per game through the first five weeks, but that figure rose to just over 140 across their next four games. Their run defense has fallen to 26th in the NFL, according to Brown’s report.
Kansas City exposed those difficulties last Sunday. Kenneth Walker rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, while the Chiefs finished with 163 rushing yards — the second-highest total New York has allowed this season.
The team report said Walker was stopped for no gain or a loss on only one carry. His four explosive runs all came against seven-defender boxes and produced 47 yards, showing Kansas City could create gains without needing New York to commit unusually few defenders near the line.
Cook enters the matchup fifth in the league with 814 rushing yards. Of the run defenses he has faced this season, only the last-ranked Raiders were below the Jets in the rankings cited by Brown.
Bills coach Joe Brady has called more runs than passes in five of Buffalo’s eight games. His approach requires patience with short gains while balancing the opportunities available through quarterback Josh Allen.
“You hope as the game continues on that those two-yard runs can become seven; you have to stick with it, and that’s hard,” Brady said in remarks published by the Bills.
New York’s forced fumbles demand attention
The Jets’ defensive struggles come with a significant warning for Buffalo’s ball carriers. Through nine games, New York leads the NFL with 13 forced fumbles and nine fumble recoveries for takeaways, according to the official preview.
Rookie pass rusher David Bailey is tied for the league lead with five forced fumbles. He also has 7.5 sacks, tied for fourth in the NFL and a half-sack behind Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau.
Bailey forced two of New York’s three fumbles against Kansas City last week. Most of his forced fumbles have come on strip sacks, making protection of Allen and his throwing arm an important part of Buffalo’s preparation.
New York has forced at least three fumbles in three games this season, its most such performances through nine games since 2000. Buffalo’s runners and receivers will also have to protect the ball through contact against a defense that has repeatedly turned those opportunities into takeaways.
Red zone execution could separate the teams
The Jets have lost four straight games while struggling to finish offensive possessions and prevent touchdowns inside their own 20-yard line.
New York ranks 31st in red zone touchdown efficiency at 40.7%, according to Brown. It has finished without a red zone touchdown in four of nine games, including an 0-for-1 performance at Kansas City.
Jets coach Aaron Glenn has taken responsibility for finding a solution, emphasizing both the play selection and execution required to finish drives. Right guard Joe Tippmann also pointed to the limits of moving the ball without reaching the end zone.
“We don’t want to settle for kicks,” Tippmann said in comments published in the Bills’ report. “They’ll help you get points, but if you keep kicking, it’s not going to get you the win.”
New York’s red zone defense has compounded the problem. Opponents scored touchdowns on all 11 red zone possessions across the Jets’ last three games: Miami went 3-for-3, followed by 4-for-4 performances from Las Vegas and Kansas City.
The Jets have surrendered 22 red zone touchdowns this season, third most in the league. Buffalo brings the seventh-ranked red zone offense, converting 66.7% of its opportunities into touchdowns.
The Bills have also improved defensively near their goal line. Their red zone defense ranks 18th overall but has allowed only three touchdowns on opponents’ last nine trips, a 33.3% conversion rate entering Sunday.
Bills at Jets kickoff
Buffalo’s Week 10 visit to New York begins at 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, Nov. 15. The matchup gives the Bills an opportunity to carry their recent rushing production into an AFC East game, provided they protect the football against New York’s takeaway threat.
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