The Mets enter the offseason with rotation questions after their starters finished 23rd in the majors with a 4.47 ERA during a 74-88 season.
New York ranked 22nd in starting-pitcher innings with 791, 15th in fielding independent pitching at 4.18 and tied for 18th in FanGraphs wins above replacement at 10.4, according to Thomas Harrigan's assessment for MLB.
Those results frame decisions about free-agent spending, veteran contracts and a young pitching group led by Nolan McLean.
The rotation has underperformed in each of David Stearns' three seasons as president of baseball operations. Whether New York changes its approach to building that staff is among its central questions heading into 2027.
Skubal could test the Mets' spending approach
Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is the top available free agent in Harrigan's assessment, and the Mets' budget and rotation needs make them a potential fit.
Signing him would depart from Stearns' history of avoiding nine-figure commitments to starting pitchers. Harrigan identifies owner Steve Cohen's view of Skubal as a potential factor in whether that approach changes after another disappointing season.
The possibility remains an offseason scenario, rather than a completed deal or a stated Mets commitment to sign him.
Senga and Manaea enter contract years
Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea are each entering the final season of their contracts, with uncertain places in the 2027 rotation.
Senga signed a five-year, $75 million deal under the front office led by Billy Eppler and had a strong rookie season in 2023. Injuries and inconsistency followed, and he spent much of 2026 in relief after allowing a 10.08 ERA across his first seven starts.
Manaea has a 5.03 ERA over the first two seasons of the three-year, $75 million contract he signed after a strong 2024. That year, he posted a 3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 innings for New York.
Harrigan's assessment leaves open whether either veteran will return to the rotation or remain on the roster.
McLean leads a promising but inexperienced group
McLean, 25, gave the Mets a productive rookie season with a 3.16 ERA, 3.59 fielding independent pitching mark and 3.63 expected ERA. Harrigan sees the potential for him to develop into a top-tier starter, with further improvement carrying added weight if New York does not sign Skubal.
Christian Scott and Zac Thornton also offered encouraging results across a combined 38 starts. Scott had a 3.85 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings, while Thornton posted a 3.42 ERA and a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Jonah Tong showed promise late in the season, recording a 33.9% whiff rate and 31.0% strikeout rate in the final month. Scott, Thornton and Tong have combined for 291 major league innings, leaving the Mets to weigh those results against limited experience.
The offense presents a different set of circumstances. Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor appeared together in the starting lineup only 55 times in 2026, while Bo Bichette contributed little over the first two months. Young outfielders Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing add to a group Harrigan believes has a clearer route to improvement.
For the pitching staff, New York's decisions will hinge on how much to spend at the top of the rotation, what roles to give its veterans and how much responsibility its young starters can carry.
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