More than three-quarters of U.S. adults expect the military conflict with Iran to continue for at least another six months, and nearly two-thirds disapprove of President Donald Trump's handling of it, according to a new national survey.
The Pew Research Center analysis found that 47% expected U.S. military action to last more than another year and 30% expected it to last another six months to a year. Roughly two in 10 expected it to end within six months. These answers are public expectations, not a forecast of military operations.
Pew surveyed 5,062 adults from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4. The poll provides no separate estimate for New York or the Finger Lakes. It was completed before Trump made comments later that week about the possibility of Iran striking U.S. cities, Pew noted.
Disapproval grows, including among Republicans
Sixty-five percent disapproved of Trump's handling of U.S. military action against Iran and 33% approved. In March, shortly after the conflict began, 61% disapproved and 37% approved. The share calling the initial decision to use force right fell from 38% in March to 34%.
Republican and Republican-leaning adults remained much more supportive than Democrats and Democratic leaners, but support among Republicans declined. Sixty-three percent of Republicans approved of Trump's handling, down from 69% in March. Sixty-five percent said the initial decision to use force was right, down from 71%. Democrats' views were largely unchanged; one in 10 said the initial decision was right.
Those findings describe assessments of the conflict and the president. They do not establish why any respondent changed views, nor do they measure the military outcome.
Fuel costs and troop safety top concerns
Asked about potential consequences, 73% said they were extremely or very concerned about higher gas and fuel prices, and 71% expressed that level of concern about American troops being wounded or killed. Majorities in both political coalitions expressed both concerns.
Fifty-eight percent were extremely or very concerned about the United States sending ground troops into Iran. That concern was more common among Democrats, at 72%, than Republicans, at 43%. Concern was lower over a terrorist attack in the United States, at 49%, and a shortage of weapons for the U.S. military, at 38%.
Among Democrats, 85% expressed strong concern about higher fuel prices as a result of the conflict, up from 79% in March. The comparable Republican share was 61%, little changed from 59%. Compared with March, respondents in both party groups were less concerned about domestic terrorist attacks and the possible deployment of ground troops, Pew found.
The Iran questions were part of Pew's American Trends Panel survey, conducted online and by live telephone in English and Spanish. Its full-sample methodology reports a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points for all 5,062 adults. Party subgroup estimates have larger margins; polling captures views during the field period and cannot predict the conflict's duration.
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