Democratic candidates lead Republicans by eight percentage points in a national survey of registered voters, while their supporters report greater interest and motivation ahead of the November election. The finding describes current preferences, not a forecast of who will vote or win individual House districts.
The Pew Research Center report, published Thursday, found that 44% of registered voters would choose the Democrat in their district if the election were held now, compared with 36% for the Republican. Another 5% preferred a different candidate and 15% were unsure. The Nov. 3 election includes New York's congressional races; the state begins early voting Oct. 24.
The survey interviewed 5,062 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters, from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4. Pew did not report a New York or Finger Lakes estimate, and registered-voter preferences cannot establish the result in any local district.
Democrats report more engagement
Among voters who favor a Democratic House candidate, 78% said it really matters which party controls Congress, compared with 69% of Republican candidate supporters. Half of Democratic supporters said they had given the election a lot of thought, compared with 36% of Republican supporters. The shares saying they were extremely motivated to vote were 63% and 46%, respectively.
That pattern differs from Pew's survey at a similar point before the 2022 midterms, when Republican candidate supporters were slightly more likely to say party control really mattered. The new figures measure what respondents say about their interest and intentions; they do not measure turnout.
Democrats led 58% to 34% among voters who said they had given the election a lot of thought and 59% to 35% among those who said they were extremely motivated. Their lead was narrower, 47% to 41%, among voters with validated records of voting in both 2022 and 2024, according to Pew's breakdown of vote preferences.
Pew asked respondents about the named major-party candidates in their own districts in most cases, with generic party choices in a few states or where a major party had no candidate. The results remain national aggregates rather than district polls.
Voters split by age, race and party loyalty
Women favored Democratic candidates 45% to 31%, while men were evenly divided at 42% for each party. Voters ages 18 to 29 favored Democrats 51% to 23%; those ages 65 and older were more closely divided, 44% to 41%. White voters favored Republicans 44% to 37%, while Democratic candidates led among Hispanic, Black and Asian voters.
The two parties also differed in support from their own coalitions. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 73% favored a Republican House candidate, compared with 82% of Democrats and Democratic leaners who favored a Democratic candidate. Roughly two in 10 in the first group and 15% in the second preferred another candidate or were unsure.
Pew linked some respondents to official records confirming that they voted in 2024. Among those who had voted for Donald Trump, 77% now favored Republican House candidates; among Kamala Harris voters, 87% favored Democrats. Of Trump voters who now viewed the Republican Party unfavorably, 49% backed a Republican House candidate and 39% were either unsure or preferred someone else. Among Harris voters who viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably, 73% still backed a Democratic House candidate. Those subgroup figures carry more uncertainty than the full survey result.
Economy leads issue list as views of Trump worsen
The economy was the most widely cited voting issue: 84% of registered voters called it very important, including 88% of Democratic candidate supporters and 82% of Republican candidate supporters. The future of democracy, health care, education, immigration and foreign policy also drew majorities, but party priorities differed. Immigration and violent crime mattered more to Republican supporters; climate policy, health care and education mattered more to Democratic supporters.
Most registered voters said Trump was a factor in their congressional choice. Forty-four percent described their vote as against him, while 19% described it as for him. Across all adults, 30% approved of his job performance and 68% disapproved, Pew reported. Approval was down from 34% in July and was the lowest of his second term in Pew's series.
Only 22% of adults said they were satisfied with how things were going in the country, while 77% were dissatisfied. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, satisfaction had fallen to 39%, from 65% shortly after Trump took office. These are national attitudes, and the survey does not show that dissatisfaction caused any respondent's House preference.
The survey also found that 61% of voters disliked elected officials who support building data centers nearby, compared with 8% who liked that position. Opposition was more common among Democratic candidate supporters, but Republican supporters were also more likely to dislike than like it. The question measured views of a politician's position, not opinion on any specific New York project.
Pew's methodology describes a nationally representative panel recruited through random sampling, with interviews online and by telephone in English and Spanish. The full adult sample has a reported margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points; that figure should not be applied to the registered-voter or demographic subgroups. Question wording, nonresponse and actual turnout add uncertainty beyond sampling error.
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