A cooler west wind will settle across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Thursday, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with a few spotty showers before a dry and brighter stretch takes over Friday and Saturday.
The change follows an overnight cold front and begins several days of shifting weather, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Most of the region will stay dry through Saturday, but rain tied to tropical moisture is increasingly likely to spread across the area Sunday and continue into Sunday night.
Cooler and breezy Thursday
Showers accompanying the front will continue moving east early Thursday, leaving most communities with dry weather for much of the day. Clouds will be more persistent near and north of the New York State Thruway, while the southern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier should see more sunshine.
The colder air arriving behind the front will help generate scattered lake-driven showers later in the day. The best chance will be near the I-90 corridor and across northern Central New York, including areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario. A stray shower could reach farther south during the afternoon, but rain coverage should remain limited and uneven.
Rochester and Geneva have only a slight chance of an afternoon shower, while Syracuse could see an isolated shower at times. Ithaca and Corning are more likely to remain dry with mostly sunny skies. No active National Weather Service land alerts were in effect for New York early Thursday.
Temperatures will be cooler than Wednesday but close to seasonal levels. Highs should reach the lower to mid-60s across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with readings near 66 in parts of the Southern Tier.
West to northwest winds will run about 8 to 15 mph and could gust between 20 and 30 mph during the afternoon. Those winds will ease Thursday night, though scattered showers may continue near and north of I-90 before diminishing. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s.
Sunshine returns Friday
An isolated lake-driven shower could linger across northern Central New York early Friday, but high pressure building from the Ohio Valley will steadily dry out the region. Most of the Finger Lakes should have a sunny day, with only a few more clouds toward the north.
Friday will remain seasonably mild despite another northwest breeze. Highs are expected to reach the lower to mid-60s, including about 63 around Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse and the mid-60s around Ithaca and Corning.
Skies will clear Friday night as the center of high pressure moves closer. Lows will range from the 30s in colder interior locations to the lower 40s near the lakes and larger communities. Patchy fog could develop in valleys and other sheltered areas late Friday night.
Some of the coldest northern locations could also see frost. The frost risk is mainly in places where the growing season has already ended, while much of the Finger Lakes is expected to stay near or above 40 degrees.
Saturday turns warmer
Saturday looks like the driest and brightest day of the weekend. High pressure will bring sunshine through much of the day, and winds will gradually turn to the south as the next weather system begins approaching from well to the southwest.
Temperatures will respond quickly to the sunshine and southerly flow. Highs should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, with Rochester near 71 and Geneva, Ithaca, Syracuse and Corning close to 69 or 70.
Any early valley fog should lift during the morning. Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night, but the region is expected to remain dry through the night. Lows will be milder, generally in the lower to mid-50s.
Rain spreads in Sunday
The forecast becomes more unsettled Sunday as moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias moves north toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Rain is expected to spread from southwest to northeast during the day, although the exact arrival time remains uncertain.
That timing will determine how much dry weather is available Sunday morning and early afternoon. Current forecasts bring rain to the Southern Tier sooner, with chances rising later in the day around Rochester and Syracuse. Highs should still reach the upper 60s to around 70 before steadier rain becomes established.
Periods of rain are likely Sunday night across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The latest forecast supports a widespread soaking rain, but confidence is lower in exact totals because the storm track and speed could still shift before the weekend.
Current guidance suggests a regional average near 0.6 inch toward the I-90 corridor, with roughly three-quarters of an inch to 1 inch more likely from the Twin Tiers south into northeastern Pennsylvania. The probability of more than 1 inch is about 25% to 40% across the broader region, while the chance of 2 inches remains much lower and is focused farther south and east. Thunder potential also remains uncertain.
Mild Monday before another front
The main area of rain should move east by Monday morning, though showers may linger and clouds could be slow to break. Temperatures are expected to remain mild, with afternoon highs near 70 in many lower-elevation communities.
Another round of showers may arrive Monday night or Tuesday ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. Tuesday could turn breezy and wetter, followed by a noticeably cooler push of fall air around the middle of next week. Confidence is higher in the eventual cooldown than in the precise timing and coverage of early-week showers.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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