Sunshine returns across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Tuesday, but the brighter sky will come with another day of below-normal temperatures before a quick warmup takes hold Wednesday.
High pressure will keep the region dry through Tuesday night, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. A weak front will bring a limited chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by another stretch of dry weather and a warmer finish to the weekend.
Sunshine returns Tuesday
The cold air that arrived Monday remains in place Tuesday morning. Some lake-influenced clouds may linger southeast of Lake Ontario early, but high pressure moving from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic will steadily favor mostly sunny skies across the region.
Afternoon temperatures will generally reach the low to upper 50s. A few lower elevations may approach 60, while higher terrain north and east of the Finger Lakes stays cooler. That will make Tuesday one of the coolest days in the forecast despite the return of sunshine.
Northwest winds will be much lighter than Monday's blustery conditions. Most areas can expect sustained winds below 10 mph, with occasional gusts near 15 mph during the late morning and afternoon.
Early frost will be confined mainly to sheltered cold spots where skies cleared and winds weakened before sunrise. No frost advisory is in effect for the Finger Lakes or Central New York, and the combination of lingering clouds and a light breeze should prevent widespread frost across much of the region.
Mostly clear skies continue Tuesday night as the center of high pressure shifts east. Lows will fall into the upper 30s and low 40s, with some of the coldest readings east of Interstate 81 and in protected valleys. A developing south to southwest breeze should limit the amount of frost in most places, though isolated cold pockets could briefly approach the middle 30s.
Patchy valley fog is also possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, especially near river valleys in the Southern Tier. Confidence in widespread fog is low because drier air remains in place and the developing breeze may keep the lowest levels of the atmosphere mixed.
Wednesday warms rapidly
A southerly flow will bring much warmer air into the region Wednesday. After the chilly start, temperatures will climb into the mid- and upper 60s, with readings near 70 from Rochester through much of the Finger Lakes and into the Syracuse area.
The day should remain dry for most communities. Sunshine will mix with increasing clouds as the next disturbance moves through the upper Great Lakes, while southwest winds become more noticeable during the afternoon. Gusts will remain well below Monday's levels.
Clouds thicken Wednesday evening as a weak cold front approaches. Scattered showers could reach areas near Lake Ontario and the Interstate 90 corridor during the evening and overnight, but the rain will not be evenly distributed. Chances decrease farther south toward Ithaca, Elmira and the Southern Tier.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible near the Rochester area Wednesday night, but the broader setup favors light, scattered rain rather than an organized storm event. No severe weather signal is indicated in the current forecast.
Wednesday night will be considerably milder than the first two nights of the week. Most places will remain in the upper 40s to mid-50s as clouds and southwest winds accompany the front.
Limited showers cross Thursday
The weak front moves through Thursday with a few showers possible, mainly across the northern Finger Lakes and Central New York. The best chance will be during the morning near and north of the Thruway, while much of the Southern Tier may pass through the day without measurable rain.
Any showers should be brief and scattered. The front has limited moisture to work with, and clearing may develop quickly from west to east after it passes. Western parts of the region could return to sunshine Thursday morning, with clouds lingering longer toward Syracuse and areas farther east.
Temperatures will still reach the mid- to upper 60s in most lower elevations, with some Southern Tier locations near 70. Westerly winds will increase behind the front, but the colder air will not arrive in full until Thursday night.
Lows Thursday night settle into the low to mid-40s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. The change will set up a cooler Friday without bringing a prolonged stretch of unsettled weather.
Cooler air returns Friday
Friday will be mainly dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will range from the upper 50s in cooler northern and higher-elevation locations to the mid-60s across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.
A stray shower cannot be ruled out toward the Syracuse area or north-central New York as colder air crosses the relatively warm lakes, but most of the region should remain dry. Westerly winds will be noticeable at times, though current guidance does not show the kind of strong gusts experienced Monday.
Friday night turns clear to partly cloudy, with temperatures dropping into the low and mid-40s. The air will remain cool into Saturday morning, but widespread frost is not expected in the current forecast.
Dry weekend ends on a warmer note
High pressure rebuilds across the region for the weekend. Saturday looks sunny and dry with afternoon temperatures mainly in the low to mid-60s. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly as the center of high pressure moves east.
The warming trend becomes more pronounced Sunday. Mostly sunny skies and a southerly breeze should lift highs into the upper 60s and low 70s, making Sunday the warmest day of the weekend and bringing temperatures back above normal in many locations.
The next chance of rain may arrive Sunday night or Monday as another disturbance approaches from the west. Timing and coverage remain uncertain that far out, but current projections keep most of the daylight hours Sunday dry before clouds increase later in the day.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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