A sharp turn toward colder fall weather will bring scattered showers, gusty winds and temperatures mainly in the 50s to the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Monday. Conditions will improve from west to east during the day, but lake-effect showers could linger into the afternoon near Syracuse and across parts of north-central New York.
The colder air arriving behind a front will make Monday feel much different from the weekend, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Skies should clear enough in some areas Monday night for patchy frost, although lingering wind could keep frost from becoming widespread.
Showers and wind mark Monday
A cold front crossing the region early Monday will be followed by a secondary push of colder air later in the morning. Scattered showers will move from west to east with the front, while the deeper cold air crossing the relatively warm lakes may produce additional clouds and lake-effect rain showers after the main front passes.
The highest shower chances during the day will favor north-central New York. The Binghamton office expects lake-effect showers to develop across parts of Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida counties, with some showers lasting into late morning or early afternoon. The Buffalo office also expects lake-enhanced clouds and a few showers near Lake Ontario, including northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
Farther west across much of the Finger Lakes, the shower chance should diminish by late morning as high pressure begins building toward the region. Rochester and Geneva have only a slight chance of a late-morning shower in their local forecasts, followed by increasing sunshine. Ithaca and Elmira are expected to be mostly sunny for much of the day after any early clouds move out.
Rainfall should remain light where showers occur. The forecast does not point to widespread heavy rain or thunderstorms as the colder air settles in.
The more consistent feature across the region will be the wind. West to northwest gusts could reach 30 to 35 mph at times, especially during the afternoon. The wind will accompany temperatures that struggle to rise much beyond the 50s, with some higher elevations west of the Finger Lakes remaining in the upper 40s.
Most lower-elevation communities should reach the upper 50s to around 60. Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse are forecast near 60, while Elmira could reach the lower 60s. Even where sunshine develops, the gusty northwest wind and colder air will keep the day feeling noticeably cooler than Sunday.
Clearing brings frost risk tonight
Showers should end by Monday evening as high pressure moves closer and the flow off the lakes weakens. Skies will become partly cloudy or mostly clear in many areas, allowing temperatures to fall into the 30s and lower 40s overnight.
The frost risk is not uniform. The center of high pressure is expected to remain just west of the region for much of the night, which may keep enough wind in place to limit frost in many communities. Sheltered valleys and other locations where the wind becomes calm will have the best chance of seeing frost.
The Buffalo office expects frost to be possible in wind-sheltered areas. The Binghamton office says northern Oneida County could fall below freezing, while patchy frost is possible elsewhere across Central New York. If high pressure moves east faster than expected and winds ease earlier, frost could become more widespread and a few sheltered valleys could reach freezing.
Forecast lows in Rochester and the larger Finger Lakes cities are generally near 40, with readings around 39 in Ithaca and Elmira. Colder rural valleys and inland higher terrain may fall several degrees below those city forecasts. The overnight temperature range will depend heavily on how quickly skies clear and winds diminish.
Cool sunshine returns Tuesday
High pressure will settle over the region Tuesday, bringing a dry day with mostly sunny skies after a chilly start. Northwest winds will be lighter than Monday, but temperatures will remain below early October averages.
Highs are expected to stay in the 50s across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Rochester, Geneva and Ithaca are forecast near the upper 50s, while Syracuse should remain in the mid- to upper 50s. Cooler readings are likely across the higher terrain and toward the Tug Hill.
Tuesday night could bring another round of cold temperatures. Clear skies and relatively light winds would favor lows from the low and mid-30s in colder locations to the lower 40s near the lakes and in larger cities. The precise overnight temperatures will depend on how quickly the surface high shifts east and a southerly breeze begins to develop.
Valley fog may also form during the colder nights early this week. The best chances will be along river and lake valleys in the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and north-central New York, where calm conditions and the recent moisture can support localized fog around daybreak.
Warmup begins Wednesday
The center of high pressure will move east by Wednesday, allowing a southerly wind to return warmer air to the region. After highs in the 50s Tuesday, temperatures should climb to around 70 in Rochester, Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse on Wednesday, with similar readings across much of the Southern Tier.
Wednesday should remain mostly sunny or sunny for most locations. A weak passing weather system may produce a few showers Wednesday night into Thursday, but the chance is expected to favor northern areas. Current forecasts place a chance of Wednesday night showers around Rochester and Syracuse, while much of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier may remain dry.
The limited shower chance continues into Thursday near and north of Syracuse, where an isolated afternoon or evening shower is possible. Most of the region should otherwise stay dry, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper 60s.
Mainly dry weather holds into the weekend
The broader pattern remains quiet through the end of the week. Friday should be partly to mostly sunny across the Finger Lakes, with highs generally in the mid-60s. A small shower chance may linger in parts of north-central New York, but widespread rain is not expected.
Current forecasts keep Saturday dry and mostly sunny, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid-60s. Saturday night should be mostly clear to partly cloudy, with lows mainly in the 40s.
Warmer weather is expected to return Sunday as the dry pattern continues. Highs could approach 70 across much of the region under mostly sunny skies. Confidence is highest in the overall dry trend after Monday, while the exact placement of the weak midweek shower chance and the coldest early-week overnight temperatures remain less certain.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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