FL1 FORECAST: Clouds and spotty showers Sunday before a sharp Monday chill

Sunday will begin mostly dry across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, but clouds will increase and scattered showers could develop later in the day. A cold front will bring a better chance of rain overnight, followed by a noticeably colder and breezier Monday.

Clouds increase through Sunday

High pressure east of the region will keep much of Sunday morning dry. Skies will start out mostly clear in parts of Central New York, then cloud cover will gradually spread from west to east as weather systems pass to the north and south.

The National Weather Service expects afternoon temperatures in the 60s across most of the region. A southerly wind will help temperatures rise ahead of the approaching front, though the increasing clouds will signal a change from Saturday's brighter weather.

Rain is not expected to be widespread during the day. The Binghamton office says an isolated shower could form over the Finger Lakes or Southern Tier between the two passing systems. Showers are more likely in parts of northeast Pennsylvania during the afternoon and north-central New York during the evening. The Buffalo office also leaves room for a few showers across its area before the front arrives.

That uneven coverage matters: many places may get through much of Sunday without rain, while a passing shower could briefly interrupt the dry stretch. The stronger regional chance for showers comes later, as the front moves through.

Front brings a better rain chance overnight

The cold front is expected to cross the eastern Great Lakes and Central New York Sunday night into Monday morning. Showers will become more likely as it moves through, especially late tonight and early Monday, though the forecast does not point to a prolonged period of widespread heavy rain.

The Binghamton office expects a better chance of rain late tonight into Monday morning as low pressure pulls the front across the region. Buffalo forecasters also expect a round of showers overnight. The timing may vary from west to east as the front advances.

Behind the front, cooler air flowing over the relatively warm lakes may produce additional clouds and a few lake-effect rain showers Monday. The Binghamton office places the better chance for those showers in north-central New York, where they could linger into early afternoon. Elsewhere, Monday's showers should be more limited as high pressure builds in from the west.

Monday brings the sharper change

Temperatures will fall well below Sunday's levels on Monday. The Buffalo office forecasts afternoon highs only in the upper 40s to 50s in its area, while Binghamton expects highs generally in the 50s to low 60s across its area. The range reflects differences across the broader region rather than a uniform temperature for every community.

Wind will make the change more noticeable, particularly farther west. Buffalo forecasters say gusts could reach 35 mph in some areas Monday as the colder air settles in. The day may also have periods of lake-induced clouds and isolated showers, even after the main front has passed.

The cooler pattern continues Tuesday. Binghamton expects highs mostly in the 50s to low 60s that day, with the season's coldest air so far settling over parts of Central New York. The precise placement of clouds and any lingering showers will depend on the flow off the lakes, but the larger temperature shift is expected across the region.

Frost risk grows Monday and Tuesday nights

Monday night is shaping up to be the coldest part of the forecast in many locations. High pressure moving nearly overhead will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s, and Buffalo forecasters say some of the coldest inland spots could drop into the upper 20s. They expect widespread frost during the night.

The Binghamton office also has frost in its forecast for Monday and Tuesday nights. It expects many overnight lows in the mid- to upper 30s, with portions of northern Oneida County potentially falling below freezing. That office describes both nights as possible first widespread frost periods of the fall season in its area.

Whether an individual neighborhood reaches freezing will depend on its location and overnight conditions. The forecast supports a broad frost risk, but it does not establish that every community will record a freeze.

Drier weather returns by midweek

High pressure should bring drier conditions after Monday's front and the lingering lake-effect showers. Buffalo expects the dry stretch to last at least through midweek, along with a gradual warming trend. Its forecast brings highs back into the mid- to upper 60s by Wednesday.

Binghamton also expects temperatures to recover toward normal later in the week as warmer air returns. Highs should generally reach the 60s, with overnight lows moving back into the 40s after the early-week frost risk. The forecast leaves the early-week chill as the main weather development after Sunday's limited showers.