Sunshine will return across the Finger Lakes and Central New York on Saturday as cooler, drier air settles into the region, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Most lower-elevation communities will reach the low to mid-60s, while higher terrain stays in the upper 50s.
High pressure will keep the region mainly dry through Sunday morning before a cold front crosses Sunday night into Monday. That front will deliver the coldest air of the season so far, with daytime temperatures falling well below normal and frost or freezing temperatures possible in some inland areas early next week.
Sunshine returns Saturday
Some patchy fog may develop in sheltered valleys around daybreak Saturday, especially across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Any lingering clouds or isolated showers over the eastern part of the region will move out early, allowing skies to clear from west to east through the morning.
Saturday afternoon will be sunny and seasonably cool. Highs will range from the upper 50s across higher elevations to the low and mid-60s in most valleys and along the lake plains. Forecast highs include about 61 in Rochester, 62 in Geneva, 63 in Syracuse and the mid-60s around Ithaca and Elmira.
Winds will remain light, generally from the north or northeast at less than 10 mph. The combination of dry air, light wind and high pressure passing through the eastern Great Lakes will keep the day quiet after Friday's rain.
Skies will remain mostly clear Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the low and mid-40s in many communities, with locally cooler readings in rural valleys. Patchy valley fog could redevelop toward Sunday morning where winds go calm.
Sunday stays mainly dry
High pressure will shift into New England on Sunday, turning winds to the south or southwest and beginning a modest warmup. Highs should reach the mid and upper 60s across much of the region, with a few locations west of the Finger Lakes approaching 70.
Most of Sunday will remain dry. One weather system will pass through the Great Lakes into Canada while another tracks along the East Coast, leaving the Finger Lakes and Central New York between the two. That setup should limit the coverage of any rain that develops during the afternoon.
A few showers could reach the North Country or areas east of Interstate 81 later Sunday, but the chance remains low across most of the Finger Lakes. Confidence has increased that widespread rain will not develop during the day.
Clouds will increase in some areas Sunday night as a sharp cold front moves across the lower Great Lakes. Scattered showers are possible with the front, especially north and west of the Finger Lakes, but rainfall should remain limited. Overnight temperatures will generally settle near 50 before colder air begins arriving.
Cold front brings a sharp Monday change
Monday will feel noticeably colder behind the front. West to northwest winds will strengthen, with gusts approaching 30 mph in parts of the Rochester area, while temperatures struggle to recover despite intervals of sunshine.
Highs will range from the upper 40s and 50s across western and higher-elevation areas to the upper 50s or lower 60s in some Southern Tier valleys. Rochester, Geneva and Syracuse are forecast to top out near 60, while the coldest higher terrain may remain in the upper 40s.
The colder air moving over the relatively warm Great Lakes will generate additional clouds and could produce a few isolated rain showers. Those showers should be brief and uneven rather than a widespread rain event, with much of the region remaining dry.
Clearing skies and lighter winds Monday night will allow temperatures to fall rapidly. Lows will drop into the 30s across much of the interior, and some of the coldest locations well inland from the lakes could reach the upper 20s by Tuesday morning. Frost will be possible, particularly across rural valleys and higher terrain.
Tuesday remains cool as freeze potential shifts east
Tuesday will stay dry but well below normal for early October. Sunshine should return across much of the region, although afternoon temperatures will reach only the low and mid-50s in Central New York and the upper 50s in parts of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.
Another cold night is expected Tuesday night. Many city centers and communities close to the lakes are forecast to remain in the upper 30s or low 40s, but sheltered inland locations could fall to freezing. The strongest freeze potential may shift toward Central New York and the eastern Southern Tier as high pressure settles closer to the region.
The exact extent of frost and freezing temperatures will depend on cloud cover, wind and how quickly temperatures fall on both nights. The National Weather Service had not posted any New York watches, warnings or advisories with the early Saturday forecast, but frost headlines could become necessary as the colder period draws closer.
A midweek warmup follows
High pressure will move east Wednesday, allowing southwest winds to return and starting a gradual temperature rebound. Wednesday is expected to be sunny and dry, with highs climbing back into the upper 60s across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Temperatures should return closer to normal by Thursday, when highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s to near 70. Most of the region is expected to remain dry through the middle of the week, although a weak disturbance approaching from the west could bring a small shower chance to western areas later Wednesday night or Thursday.
Confidence is higher in the midweek warming trend than in the timing of the next rain chance. The broader pattern favors dry conditions for much of Wednesday and Thursday before the next system approaches later in the week.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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