Rain will spread across the Finger Lakes and Central New York through Friday morning before tapering from west to east during the afternoon. The cold front bringing the rain will also end the recent warmth, setting up a dry, sunny and seasonably cool weekend.
The rain will be widespread but mainly light to moderate, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Thunderstorms are not expected, and the threat of heavy rain or flooding is near zero despite the unusually moist air moving through the region.
Rain crosses the region Friday
The steadiest rain will follow the cold front southeast across western and north-central New York this morning. Rochester and the western Finger Lakes should see the rain end first, while showers will continue later around Ithaca, Syracuse and communities farther east.
Most of the region will remain cloudy while the front passes. Periods of lower clouds and reduced visibility are possible beneath the steadier rain, especially during the morning and around midday, before conditions gradually improve from northwest to southeast.
Rainfall totals will vary. Much of western and north-central New York is expected to receive one-half to three-quarters of an inch, while lighter amounts are forecast for parts of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Current forecasts call for about one-quarter to one-half inch around Rochester and Syracuse, with roughly one-tenth to one-quarter inch around Geneva and Ithaca.
The rain is expected to benefit areas that have been dry without producing a meaningful flooding threat. The showers will trail behind the surface front, limiting their ability to draw on all of the moisture in place. The lack of instability will also keep thunderstorms out of the forecast.
Temperatures will show less variation than they did Thursday. Highs should reach the mid-60s from Rochester and Geneva to Ithaca and Syracuse, with most of Central New York north of Interstate 88 remaining in the 60s. Areas farther south and east may reach the 70s before the front arrives.
Winds will turn from the west and northwest as cooler air moves in. Gustier conditions are expected near Lake Ontario later Friday and Friday night, while inland winds across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York will generally remain lighter.
Showers should end around midday in the Rochester area, by early to midafternoon across much of the Finger Lakes and later in the day toward Central New York. A few light showers could linger behind the front, but the overall trend will be toward drying skies by evening.
Clouds break Friday night
Drier air will continue to move into the region Friday night. Clouds will gradually break, and temperatures will fall into the mid- to upper 40s in many communities after several mild nights.
Northwest winds will ease overnight as high pressure builds closer to New York. Some low clouds may linger longer east of the Finger Lakes, but most locations should be partly cloudy or clearing by early Saturday.
Patchy fog could develop near river and lake valleys late Friday night and early Saturday as winds become light. The best chance will be in the Southern Tier, the Finger Lakes and other sheltered valleys where moisture remains from Friday's rain.
Sunshine returns Saturday
Saturday will bring widespread sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. Highs are forecast in the low to mid-60s, including near 62 in Rochester, 63 in Geneva, 64 in Syracuse and 66 in Ithaca.
Winds will be light from the north or northeast, leaving the region with a quiet fall afternoon. Any early valley fog will dissipate after sunrise, and no rain is expected through the day.
Clear to mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night. Lows will generally fall into the low to mid-40s, with colder readings possible in rural valleys. Patchy fog may form again near lakes, rivers and sheltered low spots before Sunday morning.
Sunday will remain mainly dry across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. A low-pressure system passing well to the south could bring a few showers into northeastern Pennsylvania, but the more likely outcome across upstate New York is partly to mostly sunny weather.
Temperatures will recover slightly Sunday afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 60s around Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse and near 70 in Rochester as southerly winds develop ahead of another cold front.
Stronger cold front arrives Sunday night
A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday night, possibly producing a few showers as it moves through. Rain coverage appears limited, and the front's larger effect will be the much colder air following it into the region.
Monday will turn breezier as west and northwest winds increase. A few additional showers are possible while an upper-level disturbance passes, though much of the day may remain dry with intervals of sunshine. Highs are expected to stop near 60 across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
The colder air will settle in more fully Monday night and Tuesday. City forecasts show lows from the upper 30s to low 40s, while sheltered inland valleys could become colder if skies clear and winds ease.
Frost will be possible Monday night and may become more widespread Tuesday night. A freeze also cannot be ruled out in the coldest locations, although the exact coverage will depend on cloud cover, wind and the position of high pressure. The growing season has already ended across much of Central New York, while some Finger Lakes counties remain active for frost and freeze products.
Coolest day arrives Tuesday
Tuesday is expected to be the coolest day of the stretch, with highs mainly in the mid-50s across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Areas closer to the Tug Hill Plateau and Adirondacks may remain in the upper 40s.
Dry weather and sunshine are expected Tuesday as high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Another cold night will follow, with lows in the 30s across many inland locations and frost possible again where winds become calm.
Temperatures should begin to rebound Wednesday, when highs return to the mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. Thursday currently looks mostly sunny and milder, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70, though a small shower chance may return late in the day in parts of the Finger Lakes and Central New York.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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