Scattered light showers will cross the Finger Lakes and Central New York this morning before precipitation becomes more isolated and much of the region turns mainly dry this afternoon. Clouds will hold on for much of the day, but temperatures will still climb into the 70s ahead of a more widespread round of rain tonight and Friday.
The showers are moving through with a warm front, according to the National Weather Service offices in Buffalo and Binghamton. Most places will receive less than a tenth of an inch from the morning rain, while any partial clearing later today could allow the warmest valleys to approach 80 degrees.
Morning showers thin this afternoon
The greatest concentration of early showers will be near the Finger Lakes, with the rain lifting north as the warm front moves through. Showers should become less numerous from south to north by early afternoon, though an isolated shower could linger near and north of the New York State Thruway into the middle of the day.
The rain will be light and uneven. Brief periods of lower clouds and reduced visibility are possible beneath steadier showers, but most locations will see only a small amount of rain before the first round ends.
Thursday will remain mostly cloudy even after the showers thin. Highs are expected to reach the mid-70s around Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse, with upper 70s possible near Rochester and in some warmer valleys. The amount of afternoon clearing will determine whether a few spots can touch 80.
South to southwest winds will increase as the day goes on. Gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible in parts of western and north-central New York, with stronger gusts approaching 30 mph mainly northeast of the Great Lakes. Winds across much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York will be lighter than those lake-enhanced gusts.
Steadier rain develops tonight
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, bringing a more organized area of rain into western New York before it spreads across the Finger Lakes and Central New York. The timing favors rain developing late this evening or overnight in the Rochester area, then expanding east toward Geneva, Ithaca and Syracuse into Friday morning.
Temperatures will remain mild ahead of the front. Overnight lows are generally expected to stay near 60 or in the 60s, with clouds and southwest winds limiting the usual nighttime cooling.
The front will have access to more moisture than the warm front crossing the region today, but the National Weather Service expects the rain to remain mostly light to moderate. The threat of heavy rain or flooding is near zero, and thunderstorms are not expected because the atmosphere will have little instability.
Friday turns rainy and cooler
Rain will be widespread Friday as the front moves southeast through the region. The most persistent rain should fall from late tonight through Friday morning and midday in the western Finger Lakes, while showers will last later into the afternoon farther east and south.
Forecast rainfall totals are generally between one-third and two-thirds of an inch across western and north-central New York. Some point forecasts in the Finger Lakes and Syracuse areas show roughly one-quarter to one-half inch Friday, while amounts could be somewhat lower in parts of the Southern Tier. Higher totals are expected farther west and over the Tug Hill Plateau.
Temperatures will vary with the timing of the front. Highs should hold in the mid-60s from Rochester and Geneva to Syracuse, with upper 60s around Ithaca and Elmira. Areas farther south and east could remain warmer for longer before the front arrives.
Showers will taper from west to east Friday afternoon and evening. A few lighter showers may linger behind the front, but drier air will take over Friday night as lows fall into the mid- to upper 40s across much of the region.
Sunshine returns Saturday
High pressure will bring a dry and seasonably cool Saturday. Sunshine will be widespread, with afternoon highs mainly in the low to mid-60s and light northerly winds.
Saturday night will be clear to mostly clear and cooler, with many communities falling into the low 40s. Valley fog may form near rivers and lakes late at night and early in the morning, particularly in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.
Sunday is expected to remain mainly dry across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper 60s. A low-pressure system passing well to the south could bring a few showers toward northeastern Pennsylvania and the Catskills, but the more likely outcome farther north and west is a dry day.
Colder air arrives early next week
A stronger cold front is expected to pass Sunday night, opening the door to the coolest air since spring. A few showers could accompany the front or an upper-level disturbance Monday, but the early-week pattern otherwise looks mainly dry.
Highs are forecast near 60 Monday before falling into the mid-50s Tuesday in much of the Finger Lakes and Central New York. Some colder areas north and east of the region may not rise out of the upper 40s Tuesday.
Overnight temperatures will fall into the 30s early next week. Widespread frost or a freeze will be possible Monday night and especially Tuesday night if skies clear and winds become light, though the exact coverage will depend on cloud cover and how quickly high pressure settles over the region.
Check the latest forecast at the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center.
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