FL1 FORECAST: Morning fog lifts into a dry, mild Wednesday before Friday rain

Morning fog will give way to a dry and mild Wednesday across the Finger Lakes and Central New York, though clouds will remain stubborn in many areas as temperatures climb into the 70s.

Fog lifts into a mild Wednesday

Fog developed early Wednesday in parts of the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and Central New York where skies cleared enough overnight. Some of the thickest fog was expected in the region's valleys and higher terrain, with low clouds adding to reduced visibility elsewhere.

Conditions should gradually improve after sunrise, with most of the fog lifting by about 9 or 10 a.m. Dry weather will then hold through the rest of the day as high pressure remains over the region.

Clouds will be slow to break, especially from Ithaca and Syracuse south toward the Catskills. Farther west, the cloud cover may thin at times before higher clouds begin spreading back into the area later Wednesday.

Even with limited sunshine, a southwest flow will push afternoon temperatures above late-September averages. Highs should reach the mid-70s across much of the Finger Lakes and the Syracuse area, with Ithaca approaching the upper 70s. The Catskills will be cooler, with highs generally in the upper 60s.

Winds will remain light, generally from the south or southwest. That will make Wednesday the calmer of the next several days before the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching cold front.

Clouds will thicken Wednesday night, and temperatures will not fall as far as they did early Wednesday. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 50s in parts of the Southern Tier to around 60 or the lower 60s across the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area.

Light showers cross the region Thursday

A weak warm front will lift through the region late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Scattered light showers may develop first across western New York and the Finger Lakes during the predawn hours, then shift northeast through Central New York later Thursday morning and afternoon.

The showers are expected to be limited and uneven rather than a steady rain. Forecast rainfall through the daytime Thursday is generally less than one-tenth of an inch, and many locations may have long dry stretches or miss the showers entirely.

Thursday will remain mild despite the clouds and passing showers. Highs should again reach the mid-70s in much of the region, with some upper 70s possible where clouds thin long enough for temperatures to rise more quickly.

Southwest winds will strengthen as the warm front moves through and a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. Gusts could reach 25 to 30 mph northeast of the lakes, while the Finger Lakes and most of Central New York should see a more modest breeze.

The warm front will also keep Thursday night unusually mild. Temperatures will remain near 60 or in the lower 60s for much of the night as moisture increases ahead of the cold front.

Widespread rain arrives Thursday night and Friday

The more organized rain will develop Thursday night and continue into Friday as the cold front crosses western and Central New York. The timing still carries some uncertainty, but the best window for persistent showers is expected from late Thursday night through midday or early Friday afternoon.

Rain will become likely across the Finger Lakes after dark Thursday, then spread across Central New York overnight and Friday morning. The front should move steadily enough to keep the rain from lasting through the entire day in most locations, with improvement beginning from west to east later Friday.

Most of the region is expected to receive about one-quarter to one-half inch of rain. Some locations could finish outside that range depending on the exact track and timing of the front, but the Weather Service said the threat of heavy rain or flooding is near zero.

Friday's temperatures will depend on when the front passes. Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s before cooler air takes hold, then readings will drop sharply Friday night. Western areas, including Rochester and the western Finger Lakes, should turn drier first, while showers may linger longer around Syracuse and points east.

Skies will begin clearing Friday night as the front moves away. Lows should fall into the 40s across most of the Finger Lakes and Central New York, with colder readings possible in the Southern Tier.

Sunshine returns for a cooler Saturday

Canadian high pressure will build into the region Saturday, bringing a dry day with plenty of sunshine. The change will be noticeable after Thursday's warmth and Friday's rain, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower to upper 60s.

Saturday night will be colder under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s across much of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. Northern Oneida County could reach the low to mid-30s, creating some potential for frost there.

The extent of any frost remains uncertain because clouds may begin increasing before daybreak Sunday. More cloud cover would hold temperatures up, while a longer period of clear and calm weather would allow colder pockets to develop.

Another system may bring Sunday showers

Sunday is expected to begin dry for much of the region, with highs generally in the mid- to upper 60s. Clouds will increase as another cold front approaches from Canada while low pressure moves near the Mid-Atlantic coast.

The timing and interaction of those systems remain uncertain. Current forecasts carry a 20% to 40% chance of showers Sunday or Sunday night, with the higher chances generally favoring the Southern Tier and parts of Central New York.

A faster, stronger front would tend to keep the coastal system farther south and limit rainfall across New York. A slower evolution could allow showers to become more widespread, so the details of Sunday's forecast may change as the weekend approaches.

Cooler air is expected to follow for Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs may struggle to leave the 50s, with northwest winds and a few lingering showers possible Monday before drier weather becomes more likely Tuesday.